Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2647.25 | 2647.75 |
| …would target | 2654.25 | 2654.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2634.75 | 2635.25 |
| …would target | 2624.00 | 2624.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 2, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two high-profile econ reports are on Monday’s calendar. Also, two reports have a reliable track record for influencing price action. How is this possible, when there are only three reports? Because PMI is influential but not high-profile, and Construction spending is high-profile, but seldom influential. Meanwhile, they’re all industrial snapshots, increasing potential for one number to be an outlier, or for all three to confirm surprising strength or weakness.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
I’m away from the screens one hour early today, so we held an early Market Wrap (linked below)…
Better late than never? Wednesday’s one or two rubber band stretches didn’t resolve Wednesday afternoon or through Thursday’s open. The balance of the morning and the afternoon compensated for the delay. And then some, reversing the morning’s dip from 2609.50 to attack 2650.00.
Of course, the last bit of that was enabled by gentler comments by Trump toward AMZN, sparking a Tech rally. But rewarding the rubber band stretches was already pretty productive.
The delayed rally has also left “unfinished business below.” The morning’s 2625.25 bias-up signal requires being retraced. And so does the afternoon’s 2639.75 bias-up signal. That could be done by Thursday’s close, as Friday Factors make trending more difficult.
Regardless of Thursday’s lower-volume rally, there’s no requirement for its failure or retracement intraday. And there’s plenty of room below to expend selling pressure without it damaging the chart.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND… HAVE A HAPPY EASTER AND HAPPY PASSOVER! CHARTROOM WILL RE-OPEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break extended down Thursday to 1.2355, and a second consecutive lower close confirms the 1.2445 sell signal, and its potential down to 1.2245, or at least to produce one more lower close.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jun, which trades at a 3.50 premium to Apr]… Not exploiting Wednesday’s closing test of 1329.00 support doesn’t prevent rallying out of the weekend, and eventually filling the gap outstanding from Monday’s 1360.00 close. But it does all but require exiting the weekend in rally mode.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s flat and narrow ranging didn’t reject Wednesday’s break under 16.40. But neither did it confirm the break. The sell signal remains valid so long as it a reaction up doesn’t recover 16.50.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Interim weakness easily held its pullback limit for fresh highs Thursday testing 146-23. The trend remains up so long as 146-02 now holds as support. But there is no requirement for another higher close.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A brief deeper dip to 63.60 still recovered back up to the 64.64 pullback limit Thursday, and then extended higher to probe 65.00, still targeting 66.88.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight into Thursday’s gap up wasn’t rejected intraday. Its probe above 2.70 resistance touched 2.76. Having probed above the optimal bounce limit. Aggressively resuming the decline is the most credible path down.
Mid-day Update… And special announcements.
REMINDER: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS DURING TODAY’S FINAL HOUR…
ALSO: Market Wrap will be held early at 2:22 ET.
Trending up to this morning’s 2625.25 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment then requires the bias-up signal to define the window’s upper-end. But its resistance was hardly recognized as the rally extended through it to 2642.00.
Being no-bias trending, the retracement down to 2625.25 has become unfinished business below. Often the 2617.00 10:15 print will be tested, too, but it is not a requirement. Reacting down to 2627.00 fulfilled neither of these lower objectives. Meanwhile, there’s a requirement above, to retest overbought RSIs at the 2642.00 high.
Given the impending three days of illiquidity, Friday Factors still apply despite this being Thursday. And they can cut either way — drifting higher through the afternoon without counter-trend sponsorship to stop it, or trading aimlessly flat-to-lower.