Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s Good Friday, so markets are closed through the weekend. Globex re-opens Sunday night, along with the chaRTroom. Happy Easter and Happy Passover!
Markets are closed.
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2639.25 | 2639.75 |
| …would target | 2649.50 | 2650.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2624.00 | 2624.50 |
| …would target | 2616.50 | 2617.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Better late than never?
Late start to fresh highs may lack sponsorship.
Rallying this morning was likely to begin early. But rallying early wasn’t any likelier to be maintained. The overnight rally put that to the test.
Immediately spiking up 7 points to probe overnight highs up to 2624.00 didn’t extend higher. It was retraced and reversed down to 2609.50.
That was still positive territory. And the 2625.25 bias-up signal wasn’t touched, so an offsetting test of its bias-down signal wasn’t put into play. The open was volatile enough not to form a “dry cleaners morning” setup.
Now the morning is rallying late.
The 2634.50 bias-up target is being probed by nearly 7 points. It wasn’t in-play, so anything above 2625.25 is “no bias trending” that requires being retraced. Its retracement could extend down to the 2617.00 10:15 print. Overbought RSIs at 2641.25 will either delay that, or else require a recovery.
Finally rewarding yesterday’s failed rubber band stretches is normal. Surging to compensate for the delay is normal. The delayed timing is only borderline normal, but that can be corrected by retracing its no-bias trending. Regardless, not trending down into a seasonally bullish weekend is normal, regardless of rallying.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… More chop.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s intraday action didn’t deviate far from the choppy overnight action preceding it. Not far above it, nor below it. The ranging was wide wide enough to represent divergent opinions, by attempts to trend in either direction. But the trending attempts were contained within the range. A late break lower from the afternoon’s narrow range was recovered like the morning’s false break lower. Both recoveries also stopped short of reversing into breaks higher.
Overnight action’s new info…
Not for lack of trying — albeit the attempts haven’t been very powerful — but yesterday’s range remains intact. Flat-to-lower ranging initially drifted down to test and retest 2601.50 through midnight. That’s still several points above yesterday’s lows. Then rallying into and out of Europe’s opens has extended to fresh overnight highs at 2620.00. And that’s still under yesterday’s highs.
If, then…
Potentially, yesterday’s two failed dips are pessimism that will prove bullish from a contrarian perspective. The other basic ingredients are there: weekend illiquidity fast-approaching, recent drop already discounted a lot of negatives, relevant support holding tests. But there’s not an indefinite time allowed before exploiting the setup. Rallying would have been acceptable already Wednesday afternoon. Not yet rallying early Thursday could be because the decline has already resumed into the long weekend. Or, worse, not trending early at all is still vulnerable to remaining range bound. Meanwhile, despite having all of the potentially bullish ingredients, there is a degree of difficulty to rallying — so much congestion from yesterday lies just above the close, making bias-up more difficult than usual to trigger.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2620.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2625.25 bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2611.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2597.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2624.75 | 2625.25 |
| …would target | 2634.00 | 2634.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2596.50 | 2597.00 |
| …would target | 2685.75 | 2586.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.