Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Holding up, and holding out.
Still hovering around yesterday afternoon’s highs.
Skepticism about this morning’s downside was proved out by the complete retracement from 2716.25 back up to within 1 tick of the open’s 2727.75 high. But that happened too late to affect the bias signal, and didn’t change that an offsetting test of its 2710.25 bias-down signal had been put into play.
The balance of the morning reacted down to fresh lows before bouncing 10 points into the noon hour. Now that has been retraced entirely to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2713.50 low.
This is a no-bias environment, so fresh lows would be inhibited from getting very far for another half-hour. A deeper drop that waits until then, or that bounces back to the bias signal, would be more reliable for extending. Recovering 2720.00 would start to signal more upside, regardless of whether the downside attraction had been fulfilled.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 21, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wondering why Fed speakers have been in hiding recently? Here comes the FOMC policy statement. And it’s a quarterly meeting, so the new Fed Chair will host his first Q&A. These can trigger more volatility and wide ranges than the policy statement release, itself.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2718.75 | 2720.00 |
| …would target | 2723.00 | 2726.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2710.00 | 2713.00 |
| …would target | 2702.75 | 2706.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Room to shrink.
Post-open selling still holding support.
The 2726.25 bias-up didn’t trigger, despite being tested thoroughly during the open up to 2727.75. 
An offsetting test of the 2710.25 bias-down signal is in-play. Usually.
Usually? I’m a little skeptical because all of the bias timing window’s price action through 10:15 was above yesterday’s 2716.25 cash session close. Which was touched twice overnight and held. So, I’ve been discussing my skepticism in the chaRTroom, while also being suspicious that the bias-up signal would trigger.
Bias-up didn’t trigger, and fresh post-open lows were probed… down to touch 2716.25. And as I’m writing, its reaction back up to 2721.00 has extended up sharply to attack the 2727.75 post-open high.
It’s too late to trigger bias-up. And it’s both too late and too early to invalidate no-bias. Exiting the bias environment above its bias-up target would still do that. Otherwise, 2710.25
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Restrained optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s relentless decline had tested the next lower objective under 2745.00 at 2735.00 by 2 points. Retesting it after the opening 15 minutes of volatility prevented it from offering support. The next lower objective at 2726.00-2727.00 was also tested too late, as the morning bias environment was lapsing. And the next lower objectives at 2711.50 and 2706.00 were probed in time to renew the afternoon bias-down signal. Testing the last objective at 2701.50 down to 2697.00-2700.00 was rejected on a timely basis this time, recovering into the final hour. Closing back above 2706.00 and 2711.50 put into play 2726.00-2727.00 which was attacked through the close up to 2723.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wide-ranging as it has been, the market has only hovered above yesterday’s late highs. The 2716.25 cash session close was retraced before the late rally resumed. Eventually extending up to 2728.50 ahead of Europe’s opens, also fulfilled the 2726.00-2727.00 objective. Its reaction fell back to 2716.25. That might be an obligatory low, which would make its current reaction an obligatory bounce — a big one, now entirely retraced up to 2728.50.
If, then…
Yesterday’s lows formed a credible bottom, but it can’t afford much hesitation before being productive. The pattern’s minimum objective is already fulfilled, and that is under any prior high whose recovery would signal the trend reversing up. Probing higher overnight does conserve buying pressure, but only temporarily. And still being near recent lows makes it more difficult to absorb another downdraft, so extending the rally without delay would be optimal. Otherwise, the nearest sell signal could be back under 2711.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2725.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2726.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2723.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.