Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2422.00 | 2726.25 |
| …would target | 2730.75 | 2734.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2706.25 | 2710.25 |
| …would target | 2697.25 | 2701.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Only a detour, still a detour, or more than a detour? Those are the most important questions to ask of Monday’s collapse. The answer to at least one of those is “yes.”
Already having tested and retested 2745.00, the next lower objective was 2735.00. It defined Sunday night’s low, but it didn’t hold on a retest. The next lower objective at 2726.00-2727.00 was tested too late to attract counter-trend sponsorship to defend it. So, its next lower objective at 2711.50 and 2706.00 had to be met.
The last objective was actually a test of 2701.50, which was limited to non-relevant timing windows that prevented its break. The tests reached 2697.00-2700.00 before finally ending the downside momentum. And having recovered 2706.00 and 2711.50 through the close, 2726.00-2727.00 was put into play. Post-close action extended up to 2723.50.
Recovering 2735.00 would have signaled the decline was only a detour. Bouncing already to leave a higher objective in-play allows this to still be only a detour, but recovering 2726.00-2727.00 Tuesday must also recover 2735.00. Whether or not first fulfilling 2726.00-2727.00, there’s little excuse for much backing-and-filling before actually rallying — and much more delay to that would suggest something more substantial than a pullback is underway.
- 2700Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up a little Monday on news of a Brexit breakthrough still stopped short of the 1.2330 sell signal that was triggered last week, and whose recovery would suggest another bounce underway.
Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was retraced Monday to test the 1319.00 signal that had triggered last week to resume the decline. Although the structure containing the 1305.00 gap back down to the lows was tested, the gap itself wasn’t yet filled, which is likelier before a rally can develop — so long as bounces hold 1319.00. And its break would target 1291.50.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce corrected Friday’s portion of the drop under 16.40, and should be sufficient for the decline to resume if that’s its intent, before actually recovering 16.40.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight lows were already testing downtrending support at 144-00 before Monday’s open. Gapping down to the trendline held its test down to 143-27 and quickly reversed up nearly 1 point to probe positive territory. Last week’s confirmed breakout still requires at least one more higher close.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Opening back under 62.25 Monday soon collapsed to “lower prior highs” at 61.35, which had been the bounce limit. It was also a test of 51.50 whose break through the close would have been a sell signal, but it was recovered to test 62.25 as resistance into the afternoon.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not until after Monday’s open did price spike through 2.70, presumably on its way to fulfilling the minimum lower objective at 2.62. The delayed start reflects an ever-present ineffectual optimism that — from a contrarian perspective — can help to push even lower.
Mid-day Update… It got worse.
Back to testing an overly-tested support.
The next lower objective for this morning’s renewed bias-down signal was 2726.00-2727.00. It was met easily soon after the bias timing window triggered at 10:15. 
And it was being tested as resistance as the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. That’s not counter-trend sponsorship timing.
The next lower objectives at 2711.50 and 2706.00 were tested during the noon hour, and as the noon hour was lapsing. The actual afternoon bias-down signal is 2707.00, and it was being attacked by a bounce into the 1:20 bias timing window. Also not counter-trend sponsorship timing.
The renewed bias-down target is 2701.50. There’s no bullish reason to revisit 2701.50, unless its test can be isolated. Like to the cusp between timing windows, which it was.
Now its reaction is testing 2710.00. Back under 2705.00 would suggest the drop is resuming, next targeting the 2690.00 area. The alternative doesn’t necessarily rally, but could seem like a rally simply by bouncing 20 points to the prior objective.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This is the slowest Tuesday calendar I’ve seen in years, with only one econ report scheduled, and it’s neither high-profile nor reliable for influencing price action.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET