Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2717.75 | 2722.00 |
| …would target | 2724.75 | 2728.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2709.00 | 2713.00 |
| …would target | 2702.75 | 2707.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias delayed is NOT bias denied.
Making up for 2-1/2 days without trending.
Recovering into the open had tested and retested 2745.00. Post-open action was all about resuming the decline. 
Having formed a Rising Wedge off of the 2733.00 overnight low, retracing it entirely during the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 could have ended selling pressure. Not even attacking 2373.00 during the open would have allowed a bottom to form at 2735.00.
The open didn’t quite get to 2733.00, and a later test of 2735.00 didn’t quite hold. Rejecting the relentless overnight selling wasn’t likely. Already, the next lower objective at 2726.00-2727.00 is being tested.
Oversold RSIs at the low will require its retest if a bounce were to develop before RSIs could leave oversold territory. There’s no requirement to drop any further today, but that’s the vulnerability until a bottoming pattern were to form, or unless the noon hour is entered or exited above at least 2735.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Starting on a down note.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
No WedEX had triggered ahead of Friday’s expiration so no bias was detected. But there was plenty of ranging. The open was greeted at 2756.00, having bounced overnight from retesting the 2745.00 area to attack 2761.00. Extending higher throughout the morning bias environment reached 2766.00, the session high. Trending back down throughout the afternoon bias environment tested 2754.00, the session low. The balance of the session retraced the high-to-low by 61.8% up to 2762.00. Recovering 2758.00 through the close could have been bullish, but the final 2 minutes plunged 9 points to 2753.00. Its reaction only touched 2758.00, as if to rub it in.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night has been under pressure since the open. Dipping immediately to 2751.00 was retraced to 2756.00, which is still resistance from Friday’s open. The drop soon extended, dipping quickly to 2746.00. Hovering optimistically short of the already tested and retested 2745.00 area, for awhile, eventually extended. Seven hours of narrow ranging finally broke lower. A last-gasp up to what is this morning’s 2750.00 bias-down signal was reversed down sharply to 2733.00 in 30 minutes. Its 61.8% retracement up to 2743.50 is now hovering above what is this morning’s 2740.00 bias-down target.
If, then…
The 2-1/2 days since Wednesday afternoon had been contained within a range. Probes of fresh lows were retraced. That is accumulative behavior, but not quite an accumulative pattern without a trigger. An intraday drop could have tested “lower prior highs” in the 2735.00 area and still been capable of recovering, perhaps even to trigger a reversal. Recovering an overnight drop under the range is substantially more difficult. There’s more time to get it done, but that also means a pessimistic tone will have been established early. That said, trending relentlessly overnight — especially into Monday’s open — can be reversed credibly, if immediately. And that’s still possible, not because there’s still time to get it done, but because that’s the potential of testing “lower prior highs.” Also, lacking WedEX bias could help attract price back into riday’s range. Otherwise, exiting the open without either trending up, or expending the last bit of selling pressure, would be vulnerable to retesting overnight lows, at least.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2745.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2735.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2740.00 bias-down target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/17/18) …Complacency, or anxiousness?
Expiration came and went with barely a whimper. Inside Days aren’t unusual, but their rare for expirations. Not just an Inside Day, but the same range that began forming Wednesday afternoon, either from complacency or anxiousness. So, how does that affect the up into next week’s FOMC policy statement, with what might be the year’s first rate hike? Will the break back under 2758-2770 finally be exploited, or try to be exploited by then? Will 2813 and higher be put back into play? Can the 1987-style crash analog re-sync?
These are some of the questions and topics discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review. Several of the week’s interesting setups and influences are also described, along with specific likelihoods and strategies for Sunday night and Monday morning’s possible opens.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
MU, NKE, PACB, ETP, AMD, CY, FDX, CARA, ARNA, AMD, CY, CVGW, AXGN, WIX, AGN
—————– (03/17/2018 09:32) —————–
jp: gm
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
—————– (03/17/2018 09:34) —————–
ljr ipad: q: do u see 2018 as being in a wide range (in general)…different than 2017 grind up
—————– (03/17/2018 09:57) —————–
Bill G: fwiw, I’ve been keeping a Demark count that had the first phase (setup) completed on the low Feb 9th. The setup phase( 13 closes less then the low two days earlier) currentlly 8 completed requiring 5 more.
—————– (03/17/2018 09:59) —————–
ljr ipad: we barely filled the gap on mar 9…optimism?
—————– (03/17/2018 10:01) —————–
ljr ipad: actually looks filled from 9 min chart
—————– (03/17/2018 10:05) —————–
ljr ipad: stocks: Earnings this week: MU, NKE, FDX
ljr ipad: (positions of strength/weakness?)
Bill G: Should be countdown phase
Ryan 2: PACB, ETP and CARA
—————– (03/17/2018 10:11) —————–
ljr ipad: mu. Thursday
ljr ipad: tues I think
ljr ipad: thurs for nke
ljr ipad: fdx earnings tues
David B: AMD,CY
—————– (03/17/2018 10:21) —————–
ljr ipad: CVGW, new ath
ljr ipad: (stop and upside levels)
Ryan 2: thanks
—————– (03/17/2018 10:25) —————–
ljr ipad: AXGN new ath. stop or upside objectives. thx
—————– (03/17/2018 10:36) —————–
ljr ipad: if you have time: WIX, AGN (no positions)
—————– (03/17/2018 10:47) —————–
ljr ipad: thx for today
David B: Thanks
Bill G: have a good one
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!