Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2759.50 | 2764.00 |
| …would target | 2765.75 | 2770.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2745.75 | 2750.00 |
| …would target | 2735.50 | 2740.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s expiration began the day by extending Thursday’s late recovery from 2745.75 to 2755.00.
Another 10 points higher into the morning bias environment exit probed the morning’s bias-up target yo to 2766.00, and proved to be the session high. Trending back down probed 1 point under 2755.00 through the afternoon bias environment exit, and proved to be the session low. The balance of the session retraced the high-to-low by 61.8% up to 2762.00.
That was almost a close back above 2758.00, except the final 2 minutes plunged 9 points to 2753.00. Its reaction only touched 2758.00. Not that expiration’s close isn’t the least relevant for predictive value. Much more relevant is that Friday was an Inside Day, and that price action has ranged choppily sideways since Wednesday afternoon broke back under 2770.00 and 2758.00. An accumulative pattern may be forming to launch another upleg.
None of which matters without a trigger. Or, with too much time elapsing without pulling a trigger. Still in the range through Monday morning would undermine the accumulative action. And after avoiding a WedEX signal, Friday’s range bound expiration doesn’t make Monday morning any likelier to trend.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- SATURDAY REVIEW BEGINS AT 9:30 AM ET… ITS LINK WILL BE EMAILED IN THE MORNING.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s close under the 1.2330 sell signal extended down Friday to fresh relative lows at 1.2260. The bounce limit can be lowered from 1.2345 to the 1.2330 sell signal, although sponsorship at this stage of the break wouldn’t benefit from interim bouncing.
Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Although not deteriorating overnight, Friday’s gap up held resistance at 1320.00 which was broken Thursday to renew the 1325.50 sell signal, extending down quickly under 1310.00 to attack the 1305.00 minimum objective.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing at 16.40 Thursday instead of under it didn’t prevent extending down sharply anyway Friday to 16.20. There’s no bullish reason for the pattern to have retrace again to its prior lows.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight up to 145-11 were retraced into Friday’s open, which probed negative territory down to 144-08 to try avoiding the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least another eventual higher close. It also further defines a compelling Rounding Bottom pattern.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday began by ranging even narrower than Thursday’s session, at or under the 61.35 bounce limit. Surging late-morning attacked the 62.50 buy signal. Just closing above 62.25 makes the 61.35 bounce limit less likely to retrace, or to resume the decline.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Any momentum behind Thursday and Friday’s breaks was greeted by anxiousness into Friday morning. That’s not rejecting their dip to relevant support, which suggests the relevant support will break lower as expected.
Mid-day Update… Saving up for the close.
Choppy ranging isn’t gaining sponsorship. Yet.
Opening firmer at 2756.00 eventually probed higher, and eventually tested this morning’s 2764.75 bias-up target. The bias environment exit probed above it to 2766.00. 
But only then, and only that much, and only for several minutes before reversing back down. The open was attacked down to 2758.00 by noon.
The gap back down to yesterday’s close is being retraced, too, down to 2754.50. That’s still overlapping this afternoon’s 2756.00 bias-down signal. This being a no-bias environment, its test should define the window’s lower-end.
It’s not in-play, but there’s room to fluctuate up to the 2764.50 bias-up signal. Its resistance won’t matter in another half-hour, and neither will this morning’s reluctance to trend. Also not mattering then — the 2756.00 bias-down signal’s support. Unless 2759.00 is recovered to reverse momentum up, exiting the bias environment under 2756.00 could drift to fresh lows for the week.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week starts off slowly with no econ reports scheduled for Monday.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET