Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2760.75 | 2764.50 |
| …would target | 2765.50 | 2770.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2751.50 | 2756.00 |
| …would target | 2746.75 | 2751.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Poking higher.
It’s not a breakout, but selling hasn’t resumed.
Pre-open attacks on 2761.00 was retraced down to 2755.00 before the open. The quick discount allowed the open to surge even more quickly. All the way back up to attacking 2761.00. Its reaction down was recovered to test 2763.00, and its reaction down was recovered to 2765.00.
This is the 2764.75 bias-up target, which fulfills the 2759.75 bias-up signal. Regardless of bias-up having triggered late, and regardless of now having fulfilled its target, this morning is still a bias-up environment. The morning bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour on Fridays.
The bias-up environment may only fluctuate back down to its 2759.75 bias-up signal. But developing almost entirely above 2758.00 suggests that pullbacks will be absorbed. And fresh highs would be entirely credible for extending higher. Exiting the bias environment under 2758.00 would start to suggest that sellers are gaining traction.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Crouching in the corner.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s break under 2758.00 barely tried to recover that afternoon. Thursday morning was resisted by it, long enough for a late-morning surge to be doomed to failure. Perhaps the afternoon’s no-bias environment intended to try again, or to resolve in a rally. We won’t know, because a headline surprise triggered a drop under the 2755.00 bias-down signal that attacked the 2745.00 overnight low. It was retraced entirely into the close. Applying that 9-10 points of buying pressure at the bias environment exit could have recovered 2758.00, and helped to end the pullback. “Unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2767.25 overbought RSIs could have attracted price even higher. Ending back above Wednesday’s 2750.00 lows after probing lower may be the beginning stages of a new accumulative pattern, or else chipping away at support — the pattern isn’t yet well enough developed either way. Whichever, it is much closer to a resolution.
Overnight action’s new info…
The momentum of yesterday’s late recovery extended slightly higher into the Globex open. Like the prior Globex session’s initial firming, it touched 2759.50 — 1 tick short of what is happens to be morning’s bias-up signal — before its first reaction down. Like yesterday’s session prior to its headline surprise, Wednesday’s 2750.00 lows held as support, touching what happens to be this morning’s 2750.25 bias-down signal. The balance of the night has ranged choppily back up to 2758.00.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s 2745.75 low touched last Thursday’s “lower prior highs,” albeit several ticks short of actually filling its gap which is preferable. Recovering back above prior lows is the basis for an accumulative pattern. A second such test is possible, but not a third test before actually recovering some resistance to signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, a second test of support could probe deeper than the first before recovering, or simply not recover and become a new downleg. That dip’s next lower support is in the 2736.00 area. And its test becomes likelier — regardless of its resolution — if this morning isn’t already rallying. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour, so early trending should be very productive.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2762.00 would be likely to trigger the 2759.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2748.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2755.75 | 2759.75 |
| …would target | 2760.50 | 2764.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2746.50 | 2750.25 |
| …would target | 2738.50 | 2742.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Headline surprises can derail a market from its path, but not from its outcome. We’ll never know whether Thursday afternoon’s no-bias environment intended to resolve up or extend sideways, had it not encountered the Trump-probe news.
The headline triggered a break under the no-bias environment’s 2755.00 bias-down signal. The drop tested 2746.00, and eventually fulfilled its requirement to retrace 2755.00. The low touched last Thursday’s “lower prior highs,” albeit several ticks short of actually filling its gap which is preferable. It was late enough to inhibit both reinforcements and counter-trend sponsorship.
Would the bias environment have resolved up to neutralize other unfinished business above at the morning’s 2767.25 overbought RSIs? If that buying pressure was expended to retrace the headline’s knee-jerk reaction, then a lower low down to the 2735.00 area is the next lower objective.
Last-minute moves into expiration can exacerbate moves. But regardless of the potential further downside, two consecutive closes under 2758.00 are still overlapping 2758.00, still allowing a new accumulative pattern to form.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.