Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping again Thursday tested the 1.2330 sell signal, which is credible for extending so long as 1.2345 holds as resistance.
Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Ranging sideways Wednesday didn’t confirm Tuesday’s favorable knee-jerk reaction to CPI, which had held the original 1325.50 sell signal as resistance. Dropping sharply Thursday broke under 1320.00 targeting a retest of the 1305.00 area lows and then 1291.50.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s ranging had failed to exploit Tuesday’s bounce above 16.50-16.55, which didn’t help to prevent Thursday’s slide to 16.40 support. But not through ti, which is still needed to confirm the drop has resumed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-higher ranging overnight still needs to close positive Thursday to confirm a breakout, and essentially create a compelling rounded bottom. Price action into the afternoon was continually returning to unchanged, making confirmation elusive.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating Thursday between the 61.35 bounce limit and Wednesday’s 60.90 close maintained the downside momentum, but a break under the 60.25 prior low can’t be delayed much longer if the resolution is down.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reaction to Thursday’s EIA report finally broke under 2.74. So long as it’s not rejected by closing back above 2.81, the pullback is targeting at least 2.62 — and potentially deeper, especially after having delayed the pullback for so long.
Mid-day Update… No-bias trending.
Finally leaving the range, for another one.
This morning’s bias environment eventually broke higher above the 2760.00 open. The window began lapsing coincidentally when yesterday afternoon’s 2767.25 high was touched. 
That was still within the range, and as was suspected this morning, the range held. Reacting down eventually entered the afternoon bias environment unchanged at 2754.00.
This afternoon’s 2755.00 bias-down signal held through its grace period. This is a no-bias environment, and a retracement to and the afternoon’s 2755.00 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end. That didn’t prevent a negative knee-jerk reaction to a Trump-probe headline, which has extended to within 3 ticks of the 2745.00 overnight low. That’s also the natural support of last Thursday’s gap.
Retracing 2755.00 would allow a deeper downleg to begin, targeting the 2735.00 area. Otherwise, recovering 2755.00 could extend to also retest the overbought RSIs at the morning’s 2767.25 high.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Quadruple Witching is extra interesting for being accompanied by an active calendar of econ reports. And the reports are both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. Also, any notice reaction to the pre-open reports will likely be duplicated by post-open reports.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2761.75 | 2765.75 |
| …would target | 2768.50 | 2772.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2750.75 | 2755.00 |
| …would target | 2745.25 | 2749.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Held back from breaking out.
Being stuck in a range doesn’t equate to being comfortable there.
After recovering from the overnight dip to 2745.00 by midnight, a range formed up to 2762.00, and down to unchanged at 2754.00. Testing the range’s lower-end before the open attacked 2752.00. Retesting the range’s lower-end post-open pierced 2752.00. Both tests recovered to at least 2760.50.
And the last two tests of 2760.50 reacted down to attack unchanged at 2754.00. They’re chipping away at its support.
Breaking lower to test the 2747.50 bias-down signal was almost required. But the 2759.50 bias-up signal’s ongoing test triggered noN-bias — not no-bias. Back under 2754.00 would still threaten fresh session lows, potentially extending to 2747.50 and 2745.00.
Meanwhile, noN-bias is less likely to trend. Ranging is already likely just for the bias timing window through 10:15 having developed entirely within yesterday’s late range. Trending this morning or coming out of the bias environment is always possible, but not already trending suggests that the first trending attempt will fail.