Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 15, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy but Philly Fed is the only report that is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action (it’s also the only influential Fed survey). However, any noticeable reaction to it would likely be duplicated by subsequent reports among the morning’s steady release.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2757.50 | 2762.00 |
| …would target | 2765.75 | 2770.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2748.75 | 2753.50 |
| …would target | 2743.75 | 2748.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Backed-down.
Overnight fight to recover held key resistance.
So, did the overnight rally create room to absorb post-open selling?
Rallying above 2770.00 overnight had consolidated in a narrow range around this morning’s 2781.50 bias-up signal. For 5 hours. The open blipped-up 1 point above the 2781.50 and resolved down quickly to attack and test 2772.00. A blip-up to 2778.00 resolved down quickly again to attack the 2766.00 bias-down signal.
Triggering no-bias put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. That’s now neutralized. The bias-down signal can be probed, but should otherwise define the ewindow’s lower-end. And having neutralized the bias-down signal’s test, the no-bias environment has room back up to its bias-up signal.
Back under 2768.75 would signal the low’s retest. Meanwhile, back above 2772.00 (being tested now) would at least start signaling momentum reversing up, and the potential for resuming the overnight rally.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Fighting back up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s session was similar to Monday, until it wasn’t. Tuesday’s open had been preceded by a 12-point spike upon the CPI report, attacking Sunday night’s 2505.00 high. A post-open rally probed Sunday and Monday’s highs up to 2807.00. Like Monday, bias-up triggered but it wasn’t renewed above its 2802.00 bias-up target. And like Monday, the balance of the morning trended down under its bias-up signal, during a bias-up environment. Unlike Monday, the afternoon trended down, too, ultimately testing 2770.00 down to 2762.50. A late 11-point bounce was probing above 2770.00 into the close. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2794.75 bias-up signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late bounce had seemed tenuous before it even began. It was already retracing to 2770.00 into the close. the Globex open immediately retraced back down to Tuesday’s 2762.50 low. Bouncing back up to 2770.00 resolved back down to 2762.50 again. The next bounce to 2770.00 was more reserved, which has been rewarded by rallying up to 2782.00-2783.00. Consolidating there for 3 hours around what is this morning’s 2782.50 bias-up signal has yet to resolve either way.
If, then…
Last night’s bounce isn’t yet attacking Tuesday afternoon’s 2788.50 bias environment high to try forming a “session-long rally setup,” but pre-open econ reports could get it there. That’s not necessary to simply rally. The minimum upside reward is to retest Tuesday morning’s 2794.75 bias-up signal, if not also its Double Top with Monday’s high, and potentially resuming the prevailing trend that is targeting at least 2818.00… Meanwhile, a deeper dip to 2758.00 is still possible, and possible to recover from intraday. Gapping up as is currently indicated would allow room to expend selling pressure before it can gain traction. But that’s probably the only backing-and-filling this pullback can tolerate without reflecting a more bearish expiration sentiment.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2785.50 would be likely to trigger the 2781.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2777.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2777.00 | 2781.50 |
| …would target | 2784.75 | 2789.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2761.25 | 2766.00 |
| …would target | 2754.50 | 2759.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.