Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Borderline distribution.
Overnight highs yet to be retested.
The open’s surge that fulfilled the 2891.75 bias-up target wasn’t retraced deeply enough to reject bias-up altogether. The 2793.50 bias-up signal cleanly. So, still being a bias-up environment, dipping down to 2789.00 was still likely to be recovered. In fact, probing negative territory held 2784.00 and bounced back up to 2793.50.
Retracing up to the 2793.50 bias-up signal was required for having probed under it during a bias-up environment. Often the 10:15 print is also retraced, which this morning is 2797.25. But that doesn’t require a retest. In fact, there is no “unfinished business above.”
But a recovery is still likelier, considering the late origin of this morning’s drop, and now having exited the noon hour in positive territory. Otherwise, another downleg exiting the bias environment would start to signal a deeper pullback underway. And having reversed last night’s fresh highs into positive territory this morning, a deeper pullback could still resume the distributive template.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 13, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s CPI is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. The afternoon’s 30-year auction is reliable for inhibiting volatility until its results, which usually result in a modest and brief relief rally.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2800.75 | 2795.75 |
| …would target | 2807.75 | 2803.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2791.25 | 2786.50 |
| …would target | 2785.00 | 2780.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Held up, in more ways than one.
Pre-open pullback bounces back into the range.
The 2805.25 overnight high had formed into and out Europe’s opens. Its reaction down ultimately probed earlier overnight lows down to 2792.50. That was a retest of the bias-up signal 1 point higher. And it was pretty late to be suggesting a reversal down.
The open easily rejected the overnight dip. The 2793.50 bias-down signal’s immediate test reversed up sharply to pierce the 2801.75 bias-up target.
Reacting down has been testing 2795.25. Now it’s being probed by 1 point to signal reinforcements have arrived. Even during the bias-up environment (whose bias-up target is already met) fresh post-open lows could temporarily test 2789.00 and still be able to recover. Otherwise, back above 2798.00 would start to signal fresh session highs underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Stepped up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Fluctuating choppily 6-points either way around unchanged had attacked 2750.00 above, and tested 2739.00 below. Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report was ultimately greeted by a 10-point dip to 2735.50. But it was only last-minute pessimism, which disappeared into a 28-point surge to 2864.00. That fulfilled the next higher objective at 2858.00, and 2870.00 was fulfilled when the rally resumed post-open and added 11 points through the morning. Another 11 points higher through the afternoon was resisted by 2786.00, before surging to 2892.00 into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s last-minute surge had been retraced 3-4 points into the weekend. Sunday night’s open abruptly reversed that by surging 10 points to 2798.50. The surge’s end became a relatively narrow flat-to-higher range supported by this morning’s 2793.50 bias-up signal. The range had broken higher to greet Europe’s opens at 2805.00, which abruptly collapsed 9 points back into a narrow range around 2798.50… Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trying to fulfill the bullish setup we discussed at Friday’s close. Consequently, it is defining a nearby sell signal that must be avoided in the near-term to avoid being cut in half.
If, then…
Last week’s bearish template rested Friday, which Friday’s surge exploited well. Overnight action resembles the behavior, but that doesn’t yet mean its next stage has arrived. Similarly, hovering above Friday’s highs doesn’t yet mean a decline won’t greet the open. But avoiding that late selling pressure — or limiting it — would help to confirm the next higher objectives are in-play at 2818.00 and 2830.00-2833.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2787.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2793.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2797.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.