Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/10/18) …Next!
THE ORIGINAL RECORDING LINK WAS INCORRECT. ITS CORRECTED LINK IS BELOW. I APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. ENJOY THE WEEKEND!
Friday Factors were at work into the week’s end, as they were the prior week and almost every week. Saturday Review discusses their basis and variety of effects. We also drill down on one Friday Factor setup, which doesn’t happen every week, but leads to a very low-risk setup. Then the bigger picture discussion addresses the next higher potential objectives, and what would derail them.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
MU, TXN, ADBE, ROKU, MOS, TRUP, AYX, ORCL, CRM, GE
(03/10/2018 09:31)
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
(03/10/2018 10:06)
ljr: opex this week. wider ranges expected?
(03/10/2018 10:09)
ljr: if we get a retest or lows. do u them to ct hold them
ljr: yes
David B: what would indicate we are going to test new highs?
David B: a close above 2818?
(03/10/2018 10:13)
ljr: my
ljr: mu
ljr: not my
David B: TXN,ADBE
(03/10/2018 10:21)
ljr: roku,
(03/10/2018 10:24)
ljr: mos, trup ayx
(03/10/2018 10:33)
ljr: earnings?
ljr: not sure
(03/10/2018 10:36)
David B: ORCL,CRM,GE
(03/10/2018 10:52)
Bill G: Have a good one
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2788.50 | 2793.50 |
| …would target | 2796.75 | 2801.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2776.00 | 2781.00 |
| …would target | 2765.00 | 2770.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday trended up throughout, but it was not a session-long rally. Even then, a session-long rally setup would include one window no probing a prior timing window’s high, but Friday’s intraday rally was relentless.
It was also substantial. The pre-open Employment Situation report’s reaction tested the next higher objective at 2758.00, and the morning bias environment exceeded its next higher objective at 2770.00. Having avoided the distributive template all morning, the afternoon extended up to 2792.00.
Having avoided the distributive template’s reaction down all day, its next appearance should control the entire session, or two. Perhaps it will also be influenced by the Friday Factor — keeping the morning’s bias persistent through the noon hour, and exploiting the afternoon bias environment holding off sellers.
Monday’s open could be the beginning of that multi-session distribution template, already trending down through the morning. Otherwise, the next higher objectives in-play are 2818.00 and 2830.00-2833.00.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- I’LL EMAIL LINKS TO THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW, WHICH BEGINS AT 9:30 ET.
- I’LL EMAIL LINKS TO THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW, WHICH BEGINS AT 9:30 ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s drop from 1.2435 to 1.2280 was retraced Friday to attack the 1.2345 sell signal. The sell signal held as resistance, but no consecutive lower close means Thursday’s break isn’t yet confirmed as reversing the trend down.
Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Initially reacting down on Friday’s payrolls report attacked 1313.00, but the gap down to 1321.00 and the 1320.00 prior lows held their test as the morning recovered to test 1325.50 as resistance. Closing any higher would have combined with the support test to launch a new rally leg. The buy signal otherwise remains at 1335.00, and back under 1320.00 would still be bearish.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already testing 16.40 before Friday’s Employment Situation report was extended by its reaction, but then recovered back above Thursday’s highs to test 16.70, and to close above 16.55. Only closing under 16.40 would now trigger a new downleg, and closing above 16.75 would signal a rally underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s close at the 143-16 sell signal immediately resolved down Friday to test last Monday’s 142-24 low, stopping short of the 142-16 sell signal that is defined by ongoing downtrending support. Bouncing into the afternoon was still holding under the 143-16 sell signal.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday eventually surged through the 61.35 bounce limit to attack 62.00. The drop’s momentum is in jeopardy, and any immediate weakness Monday morning would be likely to compensate for the delay by retracing much or all of Friday’s rally.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip back down to 2.75 doesn’t yet begin to fulfill the downside objectives, but its second consecutive session decline is in-line with the likely reaction down from having blipped-up to 2.81. And the delay in breaking lower is becoming an “ineffectual optimism” that makes more selling likely to be aggressive.