Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Crossing lines.
No distributive behavior all morning.
Did the next higher objectives just come into play? That’s “higher prior lows,” a gap and a retracement, at 2818.00 and 2830.00-2833.00 respectively.
The next higher objective had been 2730.25-2732.75, which was met and held Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Closing above it would have targeted 2758.00, if it were not already met this morning. Closing above 2758.00 would target 2770.00, but it was met this morning, too.
Closing above 2770.00 would target 2818.00 and 2830.00-2833.00 — if today’s close isn’t back under 2770.00. Closing under 2758.00 would reverse momentum down. Either negative scenario would develop aggressively. epsecially the later that it began.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 12, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports greet the new week, but there’s a lot of paper being floated.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2771.00 | 2776.00 |
| …would target | 2778.50 | 2783.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2761.25 | 2766.00 |
| …would target | 2753.00 | 2758.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Crossing lines in the sand.
Payrolls reaction trends up sharply.
Gradually firming to probe yesterday’s intraday high up to 2747.00 had once again been retraced to and through its origin. Actually, pessimism pushed price back down 11-12 points before the Employment Situation report. 
Then the newly stretched rubber band snapped back up. Hard.
Spiking to overlap the 2758.00 corrective bounce objective attacked 2764.00, ranging sideways into the open. A post-open setup identified support at 2757.00, whose test held through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Recovering 2761.00 then confirmed the pre-open rally had resumed. The next higher objective at 2770.00 was tested, too. It’s now being exceeded by more than 4 points.
Keep in mind that sellers can’t be marginalized today. They might not be influential or productive, but they remain a threat. It’s too soon to indicate whether the bearish distributive template is done. It was still influential overnight. It influences behavior, regardless of price levels.
Having tested 2770.00, not also closing above it would maintain the week-long rally being only a temporary corrective bounce. This being a Friday and already testing 2770.00, rejecting it should close back under 2758.00… or lower. Otherwise, entering the noon hour above 2770.00 would start to suggest the distributive template is not influential.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Front-month rollover.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
This week’s burning question was whether the corrective bounce from last Friday was ending. Holding multiple tests of its 2730.25-2732.75 (basis Jun, 2725.25-2727.75 basis Mar) limit was one factor. Another factor was daily comportment with the bearish distributive template. Thursday morning’s probes of fresh highs repeatedly failed, as did an afternoon surge to fresh highs. The President’s press conference left no time for resolving the pattern before the close, which attacked the afternoon high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppiness throughout the night has probed 5 points higher, 5 points lower, and is currently unchanged from yesterday’s close. Initially, two separate probes of fresh highs attacked 2748.00 and then 2750.00 (basis Jun), retracing entirely in the interim. The second retracement turned negative for awhile, testing 2739.00 before midnight. Flat-to-higher ranging since then is now trying to probe back into positive territory.
If, then…
[All price references are now basis Jun, which is the front-month, trading at a 5-point premium to Mar]… Despite probing higher highs, the distributive behavior continues. At least, earlier last night, when two probes of fresh highs were more than fully retraced. This behavior can repeat into higher and higher highs — specifically 2758.00 or 2770.00 — before the rally from last Friday can start being considered something more substantial than a temporary correction. Meanwhile, the distributive behavior need not repeat at all before the correction ends, perhaps by already exiting the open under last night’s initial ~2741.50 lows. So, the higher objective(s) will probably be in-play, possibly for today, if the Employment Situation report reaction hasn’t yet affected the market bearishly through the open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary levels aren’t applied ahead of an Employment Situation report.