Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2741.00 | 2746.00 |
| …would target | 2749.25 | 2754.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2724.50 | 2729.50 |
| …would target | 2718.00 | 2723.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s bias environment exit disagrees that the bearish distribution template remains intact. Reversing multiple pre-open and intraday bounces back to relevant levels was even confirmed by the noon hour’s fresh post-open lows. 
But the afternoon bias environment exit was influenced by a giant sucking sound to the north, reacting to news of Nafta partners being exempted from the tariffs.
The 45-minute rally from 2727.75 probed fresh highs up to 2740.50. Then it was right back down 2727.75. Bearish distribution template remains intact.
Monday night’s 2734.50 prior high was being tested at 3 minutes before the cash session close. That was on the way to the cash session closing at 2739.00. Recovering during the press conference — let alone just ahead of the next morning’s Employment Situation report — isn’t much more meaningful than noise. Regardless, not already trending down at Friday’s open will likely extend up to 2753.00 or 2765.00.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A blip-up in reaction to Thursday’s ECB policy statement pierced 1.2435 resistance up to 1.2450 before reversing down sharply through the 1.2345 sell signal to attack 1.2305. A second consecutive lower close would confirm the bounce had been reversed down to target fresh lows.
Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight only resolved down under 1325.50 into and through Thursday morning. The gap back to Monday’s 1320.50 close was filled, so closing under it would help to confirm the reversal down is intact. Otherwise, closing back above 1325.50 would at least undermine the reversal attempt.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength was retraced back under 16.55, but only to resume testing 16.50 whose break would signal new lows in-play, confirmed under 16.40.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce touched parallel downtrending resistance that intersected at 144-00, reacting down to 143-16 which is now a sell signal in addition to 142-18. Not reversing down on Friday’s Employment Situation report would have room for noise up to 144-08, while still be vulnerable to resolving down sharply into a new downleg.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s late reaction up had held the intraday drop’s 61.35 bounce limit before ranging flat-to-lower overnight. Fresh lows Thursday morning tested 60.10, with a second consecutive lower close confirming Wednesday’s breakout under 62.25.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength wasn’t any likelier or more vulnerable to reacting down. Filling gaps below, if not also probing a fresh low, would help to form a more durable bottom. Reacting down from Tuesday and Wednesday’s confirmed breakout does suggest the position of strength will be used for launching a temporary dip to neutralize the attractions below.
Mid-day Update… Distribution on.
Bearish template remains intact, but window has narrowed.
All of this morning’s bounces reacted down to relevant levels before attempting another bounce. The ongoing failed probes of higher highs has continued tracking the bearish distribution template. The last failure finally produced a fresh post-open low during the noon hour. That should be the template’s final confirmation, although a more liquid timing window is always preferable.
Anyway, now the question is when the pattern resolves down.
And the answer is anytime. Sort of. The template is still likeliest to resolve down during the same afternoon as the morning distribution. But that’s more difficult today. Tomorrow’s Employment Situation report often paralyzes the market with anxiousness.
Also, this afternoon’s 2724.00 bias-down signal is supportive for another hour until the bias environment starts lapsing. Probing under it would be no-bias trending that requires at least retracing.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 9, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. A Fed speaker appearing the same day is unusual, and could keep alive any morning volatility that might otherwise subside ahead of the weekend.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
12:45 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET