Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Maybe an errand, or two.
“Dry Cleaners morning” signal avoided, by a narrowing range anyway.
Generally, when the same relevant price is overlapped by any 3 of the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints, then the bias environment tends not to trend. 
More so, its fluctuations are directionless, and frustrating.
This morning’s first hour established two relevant levels at 2676.00 and 2681.00. Each was overlapped twice at two separate 15-minute checkpoints. The 10:30 bar had bounced from testing 2676.00 to probe only slightly above 2681.00. Although a Dry Cleaners morning isn’t actually signaled, trending attempts beyond the open’s range will be difficult to extend this morning.
Trending would be difficult anyway, since all but one of the first hour’s swings was contained within the open’s 2676.00-2684.50 surge. And neither bias signal was touched after the open — the 2674.00 bias-down signal was touched 2 minutes before the open — so no offsetting test of the other bias signal is required.
But breaking higher, which is now being attempted above 2683.50, could be attracted to filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2690.00 close, which would likely hold. Probing it has room anyway up to the 2699.00 bias-up signal, which would likely hold, but also likely reverse down sharply.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hiding its hand.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s fresh low was likely for having trended down through each of the three prior sessions. Friday’s potential for trending down into the weekend was likely for similar reasons, and for being a Friday when the weekend’s impending illiquidity can exacerbate sentiment. The early bearish sentiment was contained to testing its 2652.00 bias-down target by 5 points. But the contrary sentiment was limited to returning to unchanged around 2677.00 by noon, and ranging there choppily until exiting the proxy window at 3:20. Surging 25 points to test 2695.00 into the close did not recover any relevant level to reverse the trend up, and its catalyst seemed only to be earlier shorts covering ahead of the weekend.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap down quickly touched 2677.00 and a couple of points lower, confirming that Friday’s late surge wasn’t necessarily bullish. Bouncing nearly filled the gap back to Friday’s 2690.00 close before reversing into a slide that eventually tested 2664.00. The slide not only ended at Europe’s opens, but also began reversing back up, briefly probing Friday’s close to almost 2692.00. the past hour has drifted back down 13 points.
If, then…
Immediately retracing Friday’s late surge last night does help to prove it wasn’t bullish. But having retraced it, resuming the recovery can suggest new sponsorship has arrived, after all. Resuming the rally by triggering bias-up, preferably by already exceeding Friday’s late high through the open. Rejecting a probe above Friday’s late high through the open would keep the door wide open to trending back down today.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2685.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2674.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 — at least, not without first touching the 2699.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2685.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2699.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/3/18) …Last gasps?
Friday’s ultimate bounce may have saved the week from capitulation, but it helped the 1987-style crash template maintain its timing.In this weekend’s Saturday Review, I describe the correlations and their consequences, while also identifying interim price levels that might fine-tune expectations.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BABA, BIDU, GILD, QCOM, NFLX, WDC, ROKU, GOOG, ABBV, AAPL, AMZN, FB
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review… Please post questions and other thoughts as they occur to you.
—————– (03/03/2018 09:31) —————–
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
—————– (03/03/2018 09:49) —————–
Bill G: Maybe a smaller IHS on Thurs and Fri?
—————– (03/03/2018 09:56) —————–
ljr: any level that negates that low or crash, and are we limited in time to keep cras alive?
—————– (03/03/2018 09:57) —————–
Bill G: Ref 1987, I think their is a possibility that we are in the period from the Oct low to the test in early Dec?
—————– (03/03/2018 10:05) —————–
Bill G: If the above is true, we probably have another 10 trading days to go
—————– (03/03/2018 10:06) —————–
Bill G: y
ljr: any similarities with the 2015 aug drop that was limit down?
—————– (03/03/2018 10:08) —————–
David B: do you think the friday unemployment report will play into this week since inlation has been on the markets mind?
David B: inflation
—————– (03/03/2018 10:10) —————–
Bill G: This whole correction may be a shot across the bow that sets up for even a bigger drop after a new high later this month or April?
—————– (03/03/2018 10:11) —————–
ljr: Monday
—————– (03/03/2018 10:17) —————–
ljr: is it safe to assume nq to outperform on downside as we retest lows or possible crash? (I have qqq puts)
—————– (03/03/2018 10:22) —————–
ljr: stocks: BABA, BIDU, ROKU,
ta,ess,amm: gild qcom
David B: NFLX,WDC
—————– (03/03/2018 10:37) —————–
ta,ess,amm: goog,abbv,aapl,amzn, fb
—————– (03/03/2018 10:43) —————–
ljr: thx for today…ill watch recording later
—————– (03/03/2018 10:45) —————–
ta,ess,amm: yes
—————– (03/03/2018 10:55) —————–
ta,ess,amm: thank you
David B: Thanks
Bill G: thanks
NEW Saturday Review Link
Please ignore the last email’s link, Adobe has already changed it. The current link is below for Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2699.25 | 2699.00 |
| …would target | 2714.75 | 2714.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2674.25 | 2674.00 |
| …would target | 2662.25 | 2662.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.