Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2737.75 | 2737.50 |
| …would target | 2745.50 | 2745.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2724.00 | 2724.00 |
| …would target | 2716.25 | 2716.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Treading underwater.
Open’s rally holds resistance.
The 2709.00 overnight low had recovered to touch this morning’s 2722.00 bias-down target before the open. Dipping to 2713.50 had recovered to greet the open at 2720.50, on the way up to 2732.25. The opening 15 minutes of volatility had trended up, keeping alive potential for a bullish WedEX influence.
The bullish influence seems limited to that opening rally. Trending down through 10:15-10:30 triggered the 2729.75 bias-down signal. Its 2722.00 bias-down target held to avoid renewing the bias-down signal, but this is still a bias-down environment. The 2722.00 bias-down target is being tested down to 2718.00, and up to 2724.50.
Back above 2726.00 would be credible for signaling the post-open dip was absorbed. The minimum reward would be fresh session highs. Meanwhile, there’s risk of probing fresh lows, and the next lower objectives would be to retest the 2709.00 overnight low on the way down to 2701.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight drift, and Bitcoin.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s widening swings around 2737.50 had greeted Friday’s expiration open on a downswing to 2722.25. One more upswing persisted into the noon hour and extended up to 2754.75, fulfilling the rally’s next 2753.00-2757.00 objective. Yet another downswing fell to 2726.00 and the balance of Friday afternoon narrowed its range around 2737.50. This enabled the afternoon’s bullish WedEX to be considered only nominally influential, if dismissing the final 3 minutes.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night initially firmed to attack 2748.00. Reversing down extended through the night and into Monday’s holiday morning to 2719.50 before recovering to 2733.00 into the early close. Firming another 2 points into last night’s open briefly tested 2735.00 before returning back into a range contained above Monday morning’s lows. A downleg underway into Europe’s opens has broken to fresh lows at 2709.00, now consolidating in a wide range back up to yesterday morning’s 2719.50 low… Bitcoin meanwhile has all but ignored my 10,225-10,500 target for launching a corrective downleg. The area held initially, but was exceeded by $1,000. Its reaction down used my target area as support to consolidate the pullback, which has resolved up to fresh highs testing 11,600.
If, then…
The open is indicated to gap down. WedEX influences regular trading hours behavior, so gapping down is irrelevant. Friday afternoon’s bias environment didn’t trend down, and it ultimately absorbed dips. This behavior barely qualifies as remaining vulnerable to rallying sharply at the next regular open. But it qualifies. That said, even the most obvious influence on Friday still would require evidence coming out of Monday’s open. Initial strength would get every benefit of the doubt for extending through the morning. Otherwise, the morning would be free to trend down with potential to 2701.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2717.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2722.00 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2725.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2729.75 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week doesn’t rush back into things, at least judging by Tuesday’s empty econ calendar. Things do get busier and more varied, as more is packed into the week’s last three sessions.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2744.75 | 2744.50 |
| …would target | 2751.00 | 2751.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2729.75 | 2729.75 |
| …would target | 2722.25 | 2722.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.