Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s closing surge extended through the close and into the Globex open up to 2737.50. Fluctuating narrowly down to 2733.50 became the midpoint of widening swings into Friday’s open, 
up to 2746.75 down to 2722.25. And then out of the open up to 2754.75 down to 2726.00. Even Friday afternoon’s narrowing range still centered around 2737.50.
In fact, that’s where Friday afternoon’s bias environment was entered. Despite probing lower in the interim, that’s also where the session closed… sort of. That was the print 3 minutes before the cash session close, which matters most, but doesn’t account for a momentary 6 point dip under it at the close.
The point being that Friday afternoon’s bias environment didn’t trend down, and it absorbed dips. This behavior barely qualifies as remaining vulnerable to rallying sharply at the next regular open. Whether or not that next open is flat or gapping — up, or down — is unknown. But initial strength would get a benefit of the doubt for extending through the morning.
Meanwhile, the 2753.00-2757.00 objective was probed. Not entirely, but that’s not necessarily to consider it met, and not requiring retest. No higher objective is in-play without closing above 2757.00.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- NO Saturday Review this holiday weekend.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday extended to the 1.2435 sell signal but was still overlapping it through the afternoon. Back above 1.2465 would suggest the sell signal’s test had held so that the gap back up to 1.2530 could be filled next.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight attacked the 1366.00 gap up to 1364.40 but dipped back down to spend the day withing Thursday’s range. Post-close selling attacked 1347.00 support, which must hold to keep alive the upside momentum.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s ranging still did not recover 16.80 resistance, and post-close action dipped to Thursday’s 16.60 low. Any lower Monday could attack recent lows.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Restrained optimism through Thursday’s close left no excuse to delay triggering the 144-12 buy signal. It was probed Friday morning but the afternoon mostly fluctuated around it narrowly. Probing above 145-00 would be credible for triggering the signal.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing higher Thursday night still did not reject the 61.50 bounce limit’s test, which was still being overlapped through Friday afternoon. Back under 59.80 would resume the decline next targeting 57.20.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating narrowly around 2.56 support Friday instead of finally rejecting it suggests that it will be probed, undermining any early strength that might develop Monday.
Mid-day Update… You ask for a miracle?
Russia news stretches the rubber band.
Rallying through the morning entered the noon hour at the afternoon’s 2748.00 bias-up signal. Probing it during the noon hour attacked 2755.00, sufficiently fulfilling the 2753.00-2757.00 objective and not requiring its retest.
All of that before the bullish WedEX could begin influencing the afternoon. Tough act to follow.
Then came headlines of election meddling indictments, triggering a 25-point drop to 2730.00. It had become too late to trigger the 2732.50 bias-down signal (so, also too late to invert the bullish WedEX). The bias signal’s support coincided with additional statements that significantly undermined the decline’s catalyst. The resulting bounce is testing 2744.50.
It’s possible that the drop cleared the decks of potential selling pressure becoming pent-up during the earlier rally. This makes it easier for the afternoon to be influenced by the bullish WedEX. That said, it’s now the only upside catalyst, having fulfilled enough of the 2753-2757 objective and failing to trigger bias-up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: U.S. markets are closed for the President’s Day holiday, which also recognizes George Washington’s birthday on the 22nd. Globex opens normally Sunday and Monday evenings at 6:00 ET, but closes early in the interim Monday.
Globex regular open
Sunday 6:00 PM ET
Globex early close
1:00 PM ET
Globex re-opens
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2748.25 | 2748.00 |
| …would target | 2756.75 | 2756.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2732.50 | 2732.50 |
| …would target | 2720.00 | 2719.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.