Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2678.25 | 2676.75 |
| …would target | 2684.25 | 2683.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2665.50 | 2664.25 |
| …would target | 2657.25 | 2655.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Now, THAT’S inflation.
CPI reaction is retraced entirely.
The overnight fluctuation around this morning’s 2673.75 bias-up target had just begun improving into the pre-open CPI report. Oops.
Remember the oddities I mentioned this morning of yesterday’s treading range that barely measured double-digits, and the ranging through midnight that was single-digit in width? 
The knee-jerk reaction’s 49-point plunge probed 7 points under yesterday morning’s low.
The open was greeted at this morning’s 2645.50 bias-down target. Its 2655.50 bias-down signal was tested halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And the 2666.50 bias-up signal was being tested at 10:15. It triggered late, after having probed its 2673.75 bias-up target by 1 point. And now higher highs at 2676.75 are 3 ticks short of the overnight, pre-CPI high, pre-post-CPI knee-jerk reaction high.
Nothing requires extending or retracing. But a market that can plunge 49 points and rally 50 points within two hours is a market that can rally and plunge a lot. And the quick post-open surge to resistance I discussed before the open — albeit discussed in the context of probing fresh highs — is still a risk. Back under the bias-up signal when the bias-up environment is lapsing would be vulnerable to extending down sharply. Otherwise, entering the noon hour above 2673.75 would next target 2684.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Stepping out, and up (watch your step).
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s pullback had held repeated tests of Tuesday morning’s 2637.50 bias-down target. The tests all held, as did its retest at Tuesday’s open. The morning’s 2645.50 bias-down signal held repeated tests as resistance, too — including at 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias and warn of a choppy environment. It persisted through the noon hour’s exit which surged 9-11 points to 2666.50. Another choppy environment persisted through the close, barely measuring 10 points at its widest. The likelihood for rewarding the morning’s accumulation with a probe above Monday’s high to 2673.75 was never fulfilled.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s choppy range persisted through midnight, at about half the width. Already firming back up to Tuesday’s highs suddenly surged into Europe’s opens, which was greeted at 2677.50. Its reaction down to 2670.00 has since developed a range narrowing around 2673.75.
If, then…
Having tested 2673.75 overnight, only sponsorship’s momentum and restrained optimism inhibit reversing down. Momentum is defined by the rally’s higher highs and higher lows, which remain intact. Restrained optimism is limiting the follow-through of surges. A post-open surge would maintain the series of higher highs and higher lows if it can limit both its follow-through and its reaction down. But not even surging post-open would be vulnerable to losing intraday momentum that attracts pessimistic selling. This ongoing rally from Friday afternoon’s lows still qualifies as being only a temporary correction, so it can’t afford deep pullbacks, or much delay between surges. Greeting Wednesday with multi-session trending makes today’s close likely to trigger a WedEX signal.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2670.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2666.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2676.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2673.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew its bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2668.25 | 2666.50 |
| …would target | 2675.50 | 2673.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2657.25 | 2655.50 |
| …would target | 2647.25 | 2645.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing and retesting the 1.2325 buy signal Monday paid off by probing it overnight. A second consecutive higher close above 1.2395 resistance — which was tested Tuesday afternoon — would next target 1.2465. Closing back under 1.2305 would signal the recovery had failed.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight up t 1333.50 reacted down into Tuesday’s open, but recovered at least to Sunday night’s 1330.50 high, which would qualify as a second consecutive higher close targeting a test of prior highs at 1341.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s “inside day” can’t qualify as a second consecutive higher close confirming Monday’s breakout. But neither does it reject Monday’s higher close, allowing early strength Wednesday to be credible for extending higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday night’s rally to 144.30 peaked short of the intraday attack on the 145-16 buy signal, buy hovered above the 144-12 bounce limit. Still holding the bounce limit through Tuesday’s close keeps alive the potential for retesting Sunday night’s 143-04 low.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s weakness from the decline’s 59.80 initial target still needs to break under Friday’s 58.10 low to suggest the next target at 57.20 is now in-play, which remains and likely so long as 59.80 holds as resistance. Preferably, the pattern won’t retest 59.80 as this current segment of the decline should behave like capitulation.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Finally some signs of strength by gapping up Tuesday. But this creates unfinished business below at the gap down to Monday’s 2.55 close needing to be filled before a rally can be credible for extending higher. Meanwhile, extending the bounce has room up to 2.70.