Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2667.25 | 2665.50 |
| …would target | 2675.50 | 2673.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2647.25 | 2645.50 |
| …would target | 2639.25 | 2637.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s initial recovery back up to Friday’s 2637.50 high was eventually exceeded by a surge to 2655.00. These are 38.2% and 61.8% extensions of the relevant segments of Friday afternoon’s rally. And their influence continued to suggest the bounce was only a temporary correction.
Reacting down sharply Monday morning from attacking 2655.00 to 2620.00 further suggested that sponsorship was waning. But bias-up held, so the reversal recovered. Its recovery probed fresh session highs, repeatedly. Each time reversing back down to 2655.00 or its current proxy.
Sponsorship still waning. But obviously not prohibitive of probing higher. Ultimately, another fresh high up to 2671.50 was also reversed down to 2655.00, which was still being overlapped at the close despite first probing 9 points under it. Buyers gained no traction, but the pattern is vulnerable to extending either initial strength or weakness.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s bounce among most currencies held up through Monday morning. The Euro peaked at its 1.2325 buy signal instead of triggering it, still vulnerable to .
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally to 1330.00 was retraced back down to Friday’s highs under 1319.50, which held as support for Monday to rally back to 1328.00. Early strength Monday would be credible for extending to 1335.50 and potentially 1347.00. Back under 1319.50 would instead target a retest of 1312.50.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending Friday’s rally from meeting the decline’s 16.15 target was extended up to 16.45 Sunday night. Reacting down to 16.35 at Monday’s open launched a steeper rally to attack 16.60. That’s last Tuesday’s “higher prior lows,” and failing their recovery would target an attack on the 16.15 low.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing fresh lows Sunday night down to 143-04 wasn’t repeated intraday. A bounce limit at 144-12 was probed Monday, but not recovered, let alone probed enough to trigger the 145-16 buy signal. Retesting Sunday night’s low and recovering 144-12 would be bullish.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s probe under the 59.70 target had been recovered into the close and firmed a little further Monday. But 59.70 wasn’t necessarily recovered, keeping alive the next lower pullback objective at 57.20.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still not recovering into the weekend had all but required printing fresh lows Monday. They were shallow and ended within Friday’s range, but did not indicate a bottom yet forming.
Mid-day Update… Stair-stepping on slipper steps.
Still probing higher, albeit ill-timed.
The open’s attack on the 2655.00 overnight high was reversed back into negative territory at 2620.00. But the morning’s 2625.75 bias-up signal had triggered at 10:15. Regardless of having already met its bias-up target, the bias-up signal was likely to define the window’s lower-end.
In fact, the noon hour’s entry was probing the 2642.50 bias-up target.
The timing of that fresh recovery high created the likelihood for extending to a fresh session high. In fact, 2660.00 was probed during the noon hour. And 2667.50 was probed during the afternoon bias environment.
The timing of fresh highs continues to reflect sponsorship as being weak-handed. Probing fresh highs when entering the noon hour instead of later would have marginalized sellers for the day. And now extending higher anyway during the afternoon’s no-bias environment requires retracing to its 2556.00 bias-up signal.
All of which can be followed by yet more weak-handed sponsorship. But it usually isn’t. Exiting the bias environment back under this morning’s 2654.50 high would be the clearest signal that the bounce is done and momentum is reversing down. Meanwhile, the rally is vulnerable to reversing down, but can extend to 2673.75 or 2684.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 13, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No relevant econ reports are due Tuesday, and the week’s only scheduled Fed speaker comes and goes before the open.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET