Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2657.75 | 2656.00 |
| …would target | 2675.25 | 2673.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2638.50 | 2637.00 |
| …would target | 2613.75 | 2612.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… No takers.
Overnight rally reacts down sharply from resistance.
The overnight rally up to 2655.00 had consolidated for several hours. Almost an hour before approaching the open, a 19-point plunge attacked this morning’s 2625.75 bias-up signal as support to within 1 point. Bouncing into and out of the open attacked 2655.00. Its reaction did worse than before the open, plunging almost 35 points to touch 2620.00.
The 2625.75 bias-up signal is still being overlapped, and not necessarily broken. Not yet. Being a bias-up environment, 2625.75 should define the window’s lower-end. Hovering here into the bias environment lapsing would be more vulnerable to resolving down. This requirement to hold or to retest the bias-up signal doesn’t prevent breaking under it, by a lot.
Back above 2636.25 would start to signal momentum reversing up. There’s a lot to retrace before suggesting a bigger bounce may be underway. Meanwhile, it’s still likely that overnight highs completed the corrective bounce.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Ramming speed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday afternoon’s rally averted disaster. Overnight action had been hopeful, as was the opening 15 minutes of flat-to-higher ranging up to 2618.50. Then a reversal down developed, at first gradual, at times steep, and eventually deep. And relentless, trending down into the afternoon’s bias environment low, which attacked Monday night’s 2529.00 low to within 5 ticks. Sitting on the precipice ahead of the week’s least liquid window, price began reversing up. Initially triggered by the fresh low having been only a blip-down, the bias environment became a massive upleg. A less massive correction resolved into another still massive upleg probing the morning’s high by more than 19 points to attack 2638.00. Its reaction down still had time to close back at the morning’s 2618.50 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Gradually firming back to Friday’s late high pierced it up to 2640.00. Ranging narrowly around Friday’s high eventually tried breaking lower at Europe’s opens. Its blip-down was retraced into the narrow range, which soon surged 12 points and then another 8 to touch 2655.00. The second surge and some of the first are now being retraced down to 2643.75.
If, then…
Throughout last week I chronicled the ongoing markers of a coming capitulation. Those were the individual sets of two distributive actions, which were characterized as relatively deeper downlegs and more greatly rejected recoveries. Friday morning’s 90-point drop to new intraday lows qualifies as capitulation, regardless of recovering it entirely through the afternoon. This is also regardless of that being the week’s least liquid window, which is still being exploited Sunday night — all eerily similar the two-week old strong Friday afternoon that was followed by new highs Sunday night. The current Friday afternoon and Sunday night rallies are increasingly productive, but their second legs are narrowing. Little of which mattered so much until now, as the overnight high challenges the decline’s last relative highs from Thursday afternoon. The outcome to negotiating their resistance could dictate the next direction into tomorrow morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2645.50 would be likely to exceed the 2642.50 bias-up signal through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2636.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2625.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.
New Globex Link
The chaRTroom link has changed, and it is linked below. So far, price has firmed back up to Friday’s late high, piercing it and since then hovering around Friday’s high… Enjoy!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2627.25 | 2625.75 |
| …would target | 2643.75 | 2642.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2606.50 | 2605.25 |
| …would target | 2584.00 | 2582.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.