Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Objects in the mirror are smaller than they appeared.
Selling pressure is growing.
The wide, choppy open took its time before finally triggering late bias-down under 2674. The 2651 bias-down target was quickly met, launching another choppy range into noon. 
That choppy range was choppier than the open.
Then trending resumed, attacking 2613 before the noon hour ended. That 45-point downleg was bigger than the earlier 33-point downleg that had fulfilled the bias-down target.
In other words, the downward gyrations are expanding.
That has become the theme this week. One might even call it a “pattern.” Tuesday’s bottoming pattern was the culmination of Friday and Monday’s downward expansion. And this morning’s drop followed Tuesday and Wednesday’s expanded distribution at resistance. Either setup could have been overcome by gapping up enough. As could today’s.
If the decline can pause that long. Which it’s trying to do, extending the bounce from 2613 to 2649. But everything above the ~2641 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment is “no-bias trending” that will require being retraced. That would be problematic to invalidating the intraday selling expansion, if its consequence is already developing today before a gap up tomorrow could invalidate it.
And the consequence of that expansion is to probe under Tuesday’s intraday lows, all but ensuring new lows down to 2509-2511. So, perhaps the only bullish scenario must be sure to retest ~2641 through the bias environment starting to lapse, and then rally sharply into proximity of a gap up tomorrow.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 9, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s econ report is neither high-profile nor reliable for influencing price action.
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2658.00 | 2655.50 |
| …would target | 2667.00 | 2664.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2643.25 | 2640.75 |
| …would target | 2634.50 | 2632.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Every which way but loose.
Incredibly choppy open finally resolves.
The overnight recovery from its early 2645.50 low made it back up to 2686.50 before the open. That was already slipping to greet the open at 2681.00. 
Collapsing through the open extended down to 2663.00. Then things got volatile.
How does a 30-minute, 23-point drop THEN get volatile? By bouncing back-and-forth within a narrowing 14-point range. By invoking the grace period at its 2674.00 bias-down signal. By confirming a late bias-down at fresh lows by 10:30.
Incredibly choppy. But ultimately down. And as tends to be the case with this pattern of polarized strong opinion fighting aggressively in either direction, no time has been wasted in extending to the objective. Late bias-down triggered at 10:30, its fresh low at the same time offered confirmation, and its 2651.00 bias-down target is met less than 25 minutes later.
The objective was probed to also test the overnight low, which itself is a test of 2645.50. Its test is producing a bounce of almost 14 points, violating the current bounce limit. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest. Resuming the decline would next target 2633.00, and potentially lead to 2509-2511.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Ineffectual pessimism?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Market Tour <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s 40-point rally from 2687 both triggered and fulfilled its 2707 and 2722 bias-up parameters up to 2727. And it was almost all retraced through the noon hour. The opening print was ultimately touched upon e\Exiting the afternoon bias environment’s wide 20-point range. Rather than break lower to form a Wreversal Wednesday, yet another bounce probed the upper-end of the afternoon’s wide range up to 2710. The 3:37 position-squaring window started retracing the last bounce, no differently than the choppy afternoon’s two prior bounces. The 2687 open was being attacked to within a point 3 minutes of the cash session close. Those next 3 minutes continued dropping at the same steep pace down to 2679, which extended to 2667 into the futures settlement. That first probe under the opening print was 20 points under it.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late drop had not slowed its pace through Wednesday’s closes. The pace barely slowed as the drop extended through the Globex open, eventually touching Monday’s 2645.50 cash session close equivalent. Its relevance persisted as its support has served as the overnight low. Rallying through Europe’s opens touched yesterday’s 2679 cash session close equivalent before reversing back down to 2657.
If, then…
The most bullish element is the very late origin of Wednesday’s last downleg, so its sponsorship may be weak-handed and more easily rejected. This is further suggested, not actually signaled, by already retracing the post-close and overnight follow-through back up to yesterday’s cash session close. But it’s not enough for a reversal signal to only retrace the last relevant level, which is yesterday’s cash session close equivalent. That may just be noise. The prior relevant level must also be recovered to indicate stronger-handed sponsorship, which this morning is at least the bias-up signal. Meanwhile, the most bearish element is that two consecutive sessions have probed back above December’s prior highs intraday but failed to close higher — to an increasing degree, both in probing above and rejecting below. The same principle applied to Tuesday’s bottoming pattern, which followed the expanding weakness through Friday and Monday. Similar to that setup, not gapping up above yesterday’s lows to try isolating the overnight drop would be vulnerable to extending the drop. And the next lower objective would be a retest of Monday night’s low down to 2509-2511.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2679 would be unlikely to trigger the 2674 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2665 would be likely to trigger bias-down.