Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2721.00 | 2722.75 |
| …would target | 2729.25 | 2731.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2699.25 | 2701.00 |
| …would target | 2688.50 | 2690.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Try harder.
Surging straight up out of the open.
Narrow ranging persisted into the open. So, a post-open rally would likely be obvious with little delay if any. 
Several bars overlapping 2681.00-2687.00 soon resolved up to attack the 2707.00 bias-up signal to within 2-3 ticks.
A 61.8% retracement down to 2691.00 resolved up, too. Gradually at first, then surging again to touch 2716.25. Bias-up triggered at 10:15.
A dip overlapped the 2707.00 bias-up signal as support at 10:30, which doesn’t qualify for rejecting the decisively triggered signal. Its 2722.00 bias-up target is in-play.
Meanwhile, the dip has yet to recover, which would be signaled above 2709.00. Back under 2701.75 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway to 2690.00 or 2684.00. Any deeper would suggest a deeper drop underway, leaving unfinished business above.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Tip-toeing into the open.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s record intraday drop had extended sharply lower through the close, and much more sharply into midnight. Rallying 113 points through Europe’s opens had retraced it all to within 2 points of Monday’s cash session closing equivalent. A pullback consolidated into Tuesday’s open, which surged 100 points and probed positive territory. Another pullback consolidated into Tuesday’s bias environment exit, which surged 75 points to probe fresh highs… Just a normal Tuesday resolution of an expanding Friday-Monday setup, which we had discussed at Monday’s close. Two exceptions: First, the gargantuan size of each leg. Second, the pattern’s stages were accelerated into earlier timing windows. So, the “scary” morning developed fully overnight, and the short-squeeze came early.
Overnight action’s new info…
A narrow (relatively) 15-point range initially hovered above Tuesday morning’s high. By midnight it had slipped into another narrow (relatively) 15-point range hovering just under Tuesday morning’s high. That “second shoe to drop” feeling has lingered despite a steady stream of supportive, bullish comments coming from investment houses and central bankers. Perhaps the anxiousness is now ending as price is creeping back up into the initial range.
If, then…
Notice that I’m adapting the bottoming pattern for Monday night’s plunge to serve as the template’s “scary” morning. So, the pattern’s short-squeeze resolution is done, right? Maybe. Maybe overdone. Both Tuesday’s open AND its close surged. And the second surge originated too late to gain traction for its effort. All of which would be moot by now had last night rallied through Europe’s opens to indicate gapping up, preferably above 2715-2731. That 2715-2731 range is otherwise resistance, at least likely to be tested if the open can maintain a surge or gap up above yesterday’s last-minute 2700 high. Still ranging narrowly into the open would be vulnerable to trending sharply out of the open, in whichever direction. If down, or if opening strength were to falter, then a pullback has room to test Monday’s 2645.50 cash session close equivalent before threatening to probe under Tuesday’s lows.,, BITCOIN, ETC. Near-term resistance at 7850 is being probed by $500, just over 24 hours since probing our long-standing 6100 target by $200 (u.e. 5900-8300). RSIs are diverging negatively into the resistance test while volume slows. This leg seems close to done, potentially one more false break to fresh highs, before a likely pullback to test “lower prior highs” at 7750.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2686.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2682.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2673.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2705.50 | 2707.00 |
| …would target | 2719.50 | 2722.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2680.00 | 2682.50 |
| …would target | 2663.75 | 2666.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment was exited at 2625.00, the low of a 41-point drop from the noon hour’s high. But it was above the morning bias environment’s low, so not gaining traction. And that was the window where trending was likely to begin. Which it did, triggering a modest 75-point short squeeze up to 2693.00 and 2700.00.
After Monday’s close I described the template for a a substantial afternoon short-squeeze, but it required the morning to contain some scariness. But the open only probed lower, which didn’t fit the definition, not like the overnight plunge. Perhaps the overnight plunge WAS the template’s morning scariness element. Even then, the afternoon short-squeeze should have been more substantial from the refueling.
A more substantial short-squeeze than 75 points? Relative to what it was retracing, yes. Tuesday’s late high only tested Monday’s late high, the last bounce prior to sliding 170 points to the overnight low. That’s no small feat, and neither is its complete recovery — in any time frame. So, a lot of buying pressure was expended only to retrace a drop, and not to close above it. Even December’s prior high held its retest as resistance. That doesn’t marginalize sellers.
What would marginalize sellers? Maintaining a gap up Wednesday. At least above 2722.00, if not also above 2732.00. The reward would be a bigger bounce to 2784.00 or 2793.00. Anything shallower, not maintained or delayed would remain vulnerable to probing under Tuesday’s 2620.00 post-open lows, and potentially new lows for the move.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.