Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday didn’t entirely compensate for the delay in participating with Monday’s general currency market decline. But it creates a buy signal that would trigger above 1.2465 and targeting 1.2550. Closing back under 1.2395 would start to make a recovery less likely, or at least more difficult.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing back above 1341.00 resistance overnight was reversed already by Tuesday’s open, and then intraday to fresh lows testing 1329.00. Back above 1341.00 would still be credible for extending higher, but the door is open to a deeper pullback.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing overnight to test 16.95 as resistance was reversed back down 25 cents before Tuesday’s open, and trended down to fresh lows intraday. Another test of 16.95 would be likely to extend, but that becomes unlikely if delayed by another day.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying steeply while stocks plunged overnight wasn’t rejected Tuesday morning. But the test of “higher prior lows” up to 147-23 was retraced before the open to only fill the gap back up to Friday’s 146-03 close. The session only ranged choppily around unchanged, as the pattern still requires at least one more new low close.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging flat-to-lower Tuesday held 63.15 support whose break would next target 61.50. Closing back above 64.20 would now be able to resume the rally targeting 67.15.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s drop had extended under the gap that two prior sessions had stopped optimistically short of filling. Tuesday’s lower low only recovered to fill the gap back up to Monday’s close, but closing above Friday’s 2.86 close would still signal momentum reversing up.
.
Mid-day Update… Hanging in there, just don’t breathe.
Morning chop now followed by afternoon chop.
This morning’s post-open surge had formed a Running Correction between 2633-2651. Entering the noon hour beyond either end would have been likely to trend in that direction. Trending would be possible, but not from that signal.
The noon hour was entered 1 point above the pattern’s lower-end. And despite probing above its upper-end during the noon hour, now the afternoon bias environment is being entered back at the pattern’s lower-end.
Meanwhile, this afternoon’s bias-up signal failed to trigger, and wasn’t rejected (noN-bias) after the noon hour had met its target. Another break lower would still have potential to probe fresh post-open lows, if not also under the overnight lows. Back above 2660.00 would start to signal a rally into the close is underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 7, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed speakers are back, starting with Wednesday’s late morning appearance. That’s the session’s only influential calendar item.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
11:15 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2643.50 | 2646.00 |
| …would target | 2653.50 | 2656.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2621.50 | 2624.00 |
| …would target | 2612.00 | 2614.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Don’t get too comfy.
Post-open rally fizzles.
The overnight recovery up to 2643.00 had reacted back down to 2573.00 (note: I’m omitting decimals unless relevant). The 2602.00 opening print was 38.2% of the way back up. 
That pessimism was devoured by the post-open surge, which rallied 101 points in a half-hour to 2680.00.
From a much lower starting point, both the 2621.00 and 2638.00 bias-down parameters were recovered and the 2661.00 and 2676.25 bias-up parameters were probed. Dipping into the 10:15 bias timing window was overlapping the bias-up signal to invoke the grace period, which lapsed while testing the bias-down signal.
So… late no-bias, both bias targets met? Sure, we can go with that. I don’t know what that means, and I invented the system. We’ve never seen that status before.
Fortunately, another proprietary setup is in-play to offer clarity. It’s the 5-stage correction/reversal that is labeled in the nearby chart. Its minimum objective has been fulfilled by retracing the Stage-2 Running Correction’s lower quadrant. Its support has been chipped away, and the next lower objective is Stage-1’s 2580-2590 origin. Regardless, entering the noon hour beyond either end of Stage-2’s 2633-2651 range would be likely to extend in that direction.
Finally, there’s the timing potential for today to be a multi-session low. (Remember those?) It’s preferable for the cash session to contain the low, instead of the overnight where it is now. But the template could still apply for having probed negative territory this morning anyway. Either way, the setup should rally sharply this afternoon if valid. But no lower low intraday and no afternoon rally could keep the decline alive for tomorrow, too.