Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2843.00 | 2844.00 |
| …would target | 2849.00 | 2850.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2834.50 | 2835.50 |
| …would target | 2828.50 | 2829.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Suddenly aggressive.
Pre-open rally’s pullback finds impatient buyers.
Not much digging was required after the open before attracting new sponsorship to resume the rally. Resume it, and extend it, at a steep slope.
The overnight rally had extended to within 1 tick of its 2854.00potential, forming a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest. 
Its reaction down greeted the open this morning’s 2848.00 bias-up target. Retesting the overnight high was likely, but likelier from a little deeper, which I identified on the chart at 2845.50. Its touch did react up, first to the open’s peak, and then surging 8 points to pierce 2854.00.
Piercing 2854.00 again finally left 1-minute RSI behind. Its reaction down to 2850.50 must either recover to resume the rally, or else reverse down. Being is a bias-up environment this morning — albeit having held the renewed bias-up target — pullbacks should be defined by either 2848.00 or 2843.00. Lower would be possible after the bias environment begins lapsing, and waiting until after noon would be bearish.
On a side note, here’s a chart that Zerohedge posted this morning. It’s of the 
Shanghai China SSE Composite SHCOMP. And it might become a chart of my “Up/Down-Crash setup.. So far, it is at only 9 consecutive up sessions with 1 counter-trend exception. My definition for the setup is “A rubber band is being stretched to its maximum integrity. At 10-12 sessions in the sequence, the pattern’s resolution becomes increasingly binary, and increasingly polarized. Either the rubber band snaps back, or its restraint (i.e. dam) breaks.”
SHCOMP fluctuations usually have only a brief effect on other indexes. But popping a China bubble could be indefensible. I’m not sure that iot extending higher would be any more bullish generally.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s impressive surge might have quickly peaked after extending into Tuesday morning. But a 13-point pre-open slide reinserted pessimism and refueled buyers. And probing fresh highs overnight created a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. Threatening to open under the earlier overnight low could have been bearish, but absorbing it put into play a near-term retest of the overnight high. Which is what the morning did, probing it by 2-1/2 points. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, above Monday’s highs. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning high’s the overbought RSIs.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s choppy sideways ranging shrank in size as it hovered at or above the afternoon’s 2837.00 lows. Surging well before Europe’s opens attacked the 2843.50 upper-end of yesterday afternoon’s range, then extended to new highs attacking 2847.00. Overbought RSIs at the intraday high were neutralized, and no complexity formed the requirement for a retest. Nevertheless, a reaction down to 2843.00 is now attacking 2848.00.
If, then…
If no interim downdraft appears before the open, then the overnight action could be the temporary relief rally that was yesterday’s original template. Three other helpful elements to topping are: avoid gapping up above yesterday’s 2844.50 high, probe the overnight high by 6-8 ticks, all by mid-afternoon. But that’s just enough to optimize the vulnerability to reversing down without leaving unfinished business above. Forming these topping elements without tracking the reversal template could resolve as bullishly as the resolution could have been bearish. Producing only a post-open pullback could still extend down, but probably not durably.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2840.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2843.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
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Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2840.75 | 2843.00 |
| …would target | 2846.00 | 2848.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2832.00 | 2834.00 |
| …would target | 2826.25 | 2828.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s impressive surge had only extended higher overnight. Not at the same slope or to the same degree. And not for very long after Europe’s opens failed to provoke higher highs. Disappointment and concern triggered a slide that fell to 13 points under the overnight high. But the only critical factor was whether the earlier overnight low would be recovered, because its break would be bearish after having probed the prior intraday high.
The earlier overnight low was recovered, and sellers were marginalized. Marginalized until the overnight drop’s buyers were rewarded for rescuing the rally. That because the morning’s high, which probed 2-1/2 points above the overnight high. But entering the noon hour back under prior highs signaled that buyers weren’t gaining traction for the effort.
The balance of the session chopped sideways in a 7-point wide range that hovered exclusively above the prior intraday range. The only “unfinished business above” is the overbought RSIs left outstanding at the morning’s high, which can be neutralized overnight.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.