Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Four consecutive narrowly ranging sessions finally tried breaking Tuesday. The 1.2368 high hadn’t yet met last week’s 1.2347 overnight high, but the session largely developed above the week-old 1.2315 high close.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-higher ranging Tuesday tested 1338.00, still short of the attraction above at 1340.50 whose recovery would confirm a new upleg underway.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Just returning to 16.95 was likely to probe lower after having chipped away at its support for two weeks. Its probe on Tuesday tested 16.75 and held it, albeit struggling to recover above higher prior lows. The move is in-line with Copper’s break to fresh lows, so a second consecutive lower session would be bearish.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s probe above the 149-10 bounce limit up to 149-22 was reversed to test the 149-02 sell signal that would reinstate the decline, which is still targeting fresh lows.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Each of the two recent tests of the 63.10 pullback limit have produced bounces back to the range’s 64.70 upper-end. At least an attack on 66.00 is likely.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying overnight through the rally’s original 3.29 target up to 3.45 has resumed the rally, assuming there is a second higher close to confirm.
Mid-day Update… Settling in.
Hovering above yesterday’s highs.
Moments after sending my last blog update, a surge to fresh session highs attacked 2845.00. Fresh highs were expected, even if done as no-bias trending, which would be doomed to failure. That would require at least retesting the morning’s 2839.25 bias-up signal as support, if not also the 2837.50 10:15 print.
Both were tested before noon. And they’ve held since then.
Relatively narrow choppy sideways ranging supported by 2837.50 has persisted into and out of the noon hour. Neither afternoon bias signal was touched before triggering no-bias. Back above 2840.50 could extend to fresh session highs at 2847-2848. Back under 2837.00 could launch another downleg — although first neutralizing overbought RSIs at the high would be helpful.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed, Jan 24, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar is relatively busy, too, but not necessarily with high-profile or reliably influential items. Not that it would get much oxygen as the annual earnings onslaught continues.
Charles Evans Speaks
Tue 6:30 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2840.25 | 2842.50 |
| …would target | 2846.50 | 2848.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2832.25 | 2834.25 |
| …would target | 2825.50 | 2827.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up.
Downside threat absorbed, upside reward imminent.
the overnight dip to 2828.75 had recovered to yesterday’s 2835.00 cash session close, and consolidated narrowly into the open. 
A blip-down to the earlier 2834.00 overnight low was quickly rejected on the way up to 2841.50.
That’s new highs, and that’s within 2 ticks of the overnight “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest (often the same day). But being more than 2 points above the 2839.25 bias-up signal didn’t ensure it triggering. It did not.
Collapsing down to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2831.75 bias-down signal didn’t trigger it. And its eventual recovery back up to 2840.50 didn’t trigger bias-up. This is a no-bias environment. An offsetting test of the bias-down signal is in-play, but won’t become “unfinished business below” after already having tested it to within 1 tick.
Meanwhile, the bias-up signal should define the window’s upper-end. So far, it is. Probing above it anyway would be “no-bias trending,” doomed to failure, but not necessarily before extending to test 2848.00.
Probing fresh highs that aren’t likely to be maintained is entirely appropriate for a trend that may have begun a distributive phase. The initial rally’s collapse may reflect the lack of sponsorship at these levels. More so, the lack of reinforcements, as yesterday’s rally is already assumed to have been very weak sponsorship regardless of its degree.