Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2810.75 | 2812.50 |
| …would target | 2817.75 | 2819.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2802.00 | 2803.75 |
| …would target | 2795.00 | 2796.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Probing a new high Friday wasn’t required, but it was likely. Rejecting it wasn’t required, but it was likely. Probing a new high before the bias environment exit (2:30) would have been easier to reject, for its sponsorship possibly having run its course. Originating after the proxy window exit (3:20) would have been easier to reject, for its sponsorship being weak-handed.
Friday started printing new highs in that sweet spot between the two windows. And it extended to 3 points above Tuesday’s 2809.50 peak. Its reaction down held Tuesday’s peak as support, then extended up to 2815.00.
The bearish WedEX influence wasn’t obvious, if it existed at all. The signal did not invert, and may as well be considered invalidated — except that it still provides a template for trending down throughout Monday morning. But that would be moot if not already trending down post-open.
Regardless, overbought RSIs at the 2812.50 high require an eventual retest. The new trend extreme close on a Friday now requires another eventual new trend extreme close. And trend extremes aren’t normally associated with expirations. None of which prevents immediately reversing down Monday for what would be only a temporary detour.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Join us in the morning for this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send its link overnight.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s narrow ranging at the highs persisted through Friday, hovering above the 1.2210 sell signal.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying back to 1336.00 Friday rejected Thursday’s sharp slide from Thursday’s rally to 1340.50, keeping alive the attempt to launch a new upleg.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up to test 17.05 was modest, and didn’t quite reject Thursday’s test of the 16.95 sell signal, which would be better signaled back above 17.11 and 17.15.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending lower overnight gapped down to fresh lows testing 148-20. Fulfilling the required eventual third lower close probably won’t end the decline, which remains intact so long as bounces now hold tests of 149-10.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The symmetrical triangle that formed off the rally’s 64.75 target had persisted Thursday through its apex, requiring any break to be immediate. Dipping overnight spent Friday testing the 63.15 pullback limit, still not decisively breaking it which would otherwise target 61.65. Closing back above 64.25 would still be credible for launching another upleg to test 66.00.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Holding a test of the 3.10 pullback limit Thursday had made a retest of the rally’s 3.29 high target likely. Resistance at 3.25 contained Friday’s firming.
Mid-day Update… If a tree falls in the forest.
Bearish WedEX looking for sponsorship.
Last night’s range was wide, first dipping under yesterday’s low before recovering 14 points back toward its highs. Last night’s range was also choppy, reacting down 10 points from that overnight recovery, very near the open. The width and choppiness persisted by a 12-point surge through the open.
This morning’s bias environment ranged choppily, too, but the noon hour has suddenly flat-lined. And the afternoon bias environment is even less volatile.
None of which alters whether the bearish WedEX is in-play. But setups like this rarely resume trending. Resolving down would be likely to begin suddenly and to drop sharply. Probing higher would still be vulnerable to resolving down per the bearish WedEX influence.