Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 22, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only one econ report is scheduled for Monday. It’s high-profile, but one of the least influential to price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2806.75 | 2808.75 |
| …would target | 2811.25 | 2813.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2796.00 | 2798.00 |
| …would target | 2789.50 | 2791.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The chop never stops.
Initial surge hardly defines the open.
This week’s pattern of multiple personalities has continued through today’s open. The recovery to 2806.00 had reacted down 10 points before the open, and still had time to gap up at 2806.00.
Then extending 2 points higher reacted down 8 points to attack 2800.00, and avoided triggering the 2805.00 bias-up signal. Attacking it to within 2 ticks wasn’t close enough to invoke the grace period, but probing it through the bottom of the hour has invalidated the no-bias.
It’s too late to trigger bias-up, so its target isn’t in-play. It’s not a no-bias, which would have put into play an offsetting test of bias-down signal. Probing higher is possible — in line with the template we’ve been discussing, which would include vulnerability to reversing down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Personality switch, again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s session added to the week’s collection of multiple personalities. The pattern was already forming Tuesday, which had gapped up sharply to new highs and plunged sharply intraday. All of which Wednesday’s session-long rally had retraced into its final hour. Naturally, Thursday would be vulnerable to digesting the volatility, ranging choppily through the close. A flat-to-lower sentiment was inspired at first by not gapping up, and reinforced by the relentless series of dueling headlines ahead of a possible government shutdown. Price action was sloppy, but otherwise behaved appropriately at relevant levels during relevant windows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Intraday sentiment remained unchanged initially. Thursday night’s low fulfilled the potential down to Wednesdays “lower prior highs” at 2792-2793, which Thursday morning’s no-bias trending had barely attacked to within 1-2 points. Firming into Europe’s opens quickly became a rally that is attacking yesterdays highs to within 2 points at 2806.00.
If, then…
Although not required, Thursday’s flat-to-lower choppiness did not affect the potential for a probe of new highs. Last night’s probe under intraday lows and then its significant recovery make a probe of new highs even likelier. Actually requiring new highs still wouldn’t diminish the vulnerability of rejecting new highs intraday and trending down into the close. The afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence doesn’t impede new highs during the morning, but should erase them by the close.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2807.50 would be likely to trigger the 2805.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2801.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2803.50 | 2805.00 |
| …would target | 2810.00 | 2811.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2792.25 | 2793.50 |
| …would target | 2785.00 | 2786.50 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.