Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Position of strengthness.
No-bias trending is rallying sharply.
Despite triggering no-bias by holding this morning’s 2787.50 bias-up signal, no-bias trending has extended to yesterday’s 2801.00 open. 
An offsetting test of this morning’s 2772.50 bias-down signal becomes “unfinished business below,” along with oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2669.50 low.
2801.00 is also this afternoon’s bias-up target, so that attraction is neutralized. As for being yesterday’s open, the common behavior of its retest is to actually probe it. The hesitation suggests pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Also retesting yesterday’s 2808.50 high is entirely possible.
Although this upleg certainly wasn’t indicated by this morning’s no-bias, it is perfectly appropriate for the rally. As I noted after yesterday’s close, it will take more than a 39-point plunge to kill this rally. More, like already retracing a 39-point plunge while leaving unfinished business below. This strength is coming from a position of weakness.
Only one piece of unfinished business remains outstanding above — a new trend high close. And today’s WedEX may be predictive, too.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 18, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three econ reports are announced pre-open Thursday. Two are high-profile and one has a track record for influencing price action. Meanwhile, the holiday-shortened week has both EIA reports scheduled through the morning, too.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2793.50 | 2795.50 |
| …would target | 2798.75 | 2801.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2784.75 | 2787.00 |
| …would target | 2779.50 | 2781.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Suddenly, a different tilt.
Buy the dip, but sell its bounce.
Rallying overnight eventually extended 12-16 points from yesterday’s 2777.75 and 2782.50 closes to test 2794.00. 
Already reacting down greeted the open at 2789.00. It was still a gap up, but it wasn’t maintained. Instead, the open slid to within 1 tick of yesterdays’ 2782.50 futures close. That was soon probed down to 2780.50.
So, no-bias, right? Actually, a bounce probed the 2787.50 bias-up signal by 1 point in time to invoke the grace period. Actually, the extra time wasn’t exploited, and its reaction fell to 2784.00.
So, no-bias, right? Actually, another bounce probed the 2787.50 bias-up signal by 1 point. It’s still holding, again. So, no-bias.
Which puts into play an offsetting test of the 2772.50 bias-down signal. Which would be in the orbit of yesterday’s 2769.50 low that requires a retest for being accompanied by oversold RSIs. No-bias trending is still possible, especially when bias triggers late. Regardless, not exploiting and extending the gap up does suggest that even the most bullish scenario needs at least some more backing-and-filling below.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The pattern persists.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The holiday weekend’s 15-17 point rally to 2803.50 had cooled off enough to attract aggressive retail sponsorship through Tuesday’s 2801.00 open. Surging to 2808.50 satisfied that. It also stretched the rubber band to snap back down into the morning’s bias environment. Being a doubly-renewed bias-up didn’t prevent trending down to test the morning’s 2792.25 bias-up signal as support. The downtrending persisted through the afternoon which plunged further down to 2769.50 — down 39 points from high to low. Probing under Friday’s 2785.00 “lower prior highs” was maintained through the close to gain traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon had ended ranging between 2777.75 and 2783.75. Flat-to-higher ranging overnight chipped away at 2783.75, surging somewhat into Europe’s opens, Extending to 2793.00 is now touching yesterday afternoon’s bias environment high.
If, then…
“Unfinished business above” at Monday’s 2801.00 open should be retested before any durable decline. A new trend high close is still outstanding. The overnight rally indicates a gap up which is this morning’s only opportunity to rally, but the gap must be maintained through the open. Reversing the gap up could still extend down to retest oversold RSIs at Tuesday’s 2769.25 low, with potential to lower prior highs at 2760.00 and 2750.00. This being expiration week, WedEX will trigger at the close and be predictive of bias into and out of the weekend. Or, will it? Among the signal’s bells & whistles, the most relevant is a test of a prior high or low — which is not at all assured today.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2789.00 would be likely to trigger the 2787.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2797.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2794.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.