Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2798.25 | 2799.00 |
| …would target | 2803.25 | 2804.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2789.75 | 2790.50 |
| …would target | 2784.25 | 2785.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Room to blow.
Opening surge extends overnight rally.
The overnight rally’s 2803.50 high had pulled back to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2798.25 bias-up target. That was retraced more than 61.8% before the open, 
then recovered entirely through the open. And not by a little.
2808.50 was touched during the first half hour. The 2898.25 bias-up target and its 2804.50 renewed bias-up target were exceeded through 10:15, triggering a doubly-renewed bias-up signal. Which really means that trending is extended. And not by a little.
Trending can always extend further, but this didn’t. A reaction probed three pullback limits down to 2804.00. A likely corrective bounce to 2806.75 was touched before resuming the reaction. And not by a little.
The drop touched overnight “lower prior highs” at 2785.25 that I discussed during the Market Tour. As noted, not already testing them during the open made them likelier to hold — if not this test, then their retest. But there’s room anyway down to the 2792.25 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment.
Now bouncing 5 points is now testing 2800.00. Oversold RSIs at the pullback low require its eventual retest. This is still a bias-up environment, and nothing prevents resuming the rally. But overbought RSIs thatdeveloped during the open don’t require a retest.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… You’ll never guess.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s narrow ranging around the 2768.50 cash session close had finally broken out rally nearly 7 points, attacking 2777.00. It was retraced entirely before the open, touching the 2766.00 overnight low. But no lower, which the 3-day holiday weekend began squeezing to attack 2786.00 at the morning’s high. Ranging through the afternoon gradually extended to a new trend extreme close on a Friday at 2786.50, and futures continued firming up to 2790.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up another 5 points to 2795.00. It was never touched again while ranging narrowly down to 2791.00 into the holiday session’s early close. The narrow range initially persisted last night until midnight’s fresh highs which have extended to 2803.50. Now reacting down more than 4 points is only attacking this morning’s 2798.25 bias-up target as support. Regardless, this is a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest.
If, then…
In addition to requiring an eventual intraday retest of last night’s high, Friday’s new trend extreme close requires at least another eventual higher trend extreme close. Gapping up above all prior highs would also require eventually retesting the opening print from below. These setups have no timing element, so an immediate reversal down would have no requirement to recover soon. Reversing down post-open would have early support at “lower prior highs” from Sunday night’s ranging, and then potentially back into Friday’s range. Already breaking under Monday night’s 2791.00 low through the open would not ensure holding a test of Friday’s lower prior highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2801.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2798.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2804.50. Exiting the open above 2796.75 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up at 10:15.
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Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2791.25 | 2792.25 |
| …would target | 2797.25 | 2798.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2781.50 | 2782.50 |
| …would target | 2776.00 | 2777.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s only econ report is from a Fed survey with no track record for influencing price action, regardless of the attention it may get.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET