Posts by Rod David
New Globex Link
There is a new address for the chaRTroom, available below. Meanwhile, Globex has opened with a surge up to 2795.00. That’s compared to Friday’s 2786.50 close, which had extended to 2790.00 into the weekend. U.S. markets are closed, so the durability is questionable. I’ll annotate where possible… See you there!
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s new trend extreme close at 2786.50 was back within the afternoon bias environment’s range, which does undermine its near-term upside momentum slightly. Similarly, recovering through the close up to 2789.00 doesn’t reinforce the upside momentum.
Regardless, the requirement for at least another eventual higher trend extreme close is not affected. But that is basis U.S. regular trading hours.
That opens a window for a global pullback Monday while participation is suppressed. Only ranging choppily through the afternoon around the morning’s 2785.75 high doesn’t reinforce upside momentum — again, regardless of having surged during the position-squaring window.
My big question is regarding Tuesday’s “top” when its new trend highs were book-ended by closing essentially flat with the open’s 2751.00 gap up. The setup tends to precede a reversal, which there was on Wednesday. But that organic setup was overcome artificially, as weak-handed sellers reacted to news headlines. If the prerequisite recovery triggered a short-squeeze, then a strap in tight.
The chaRTroom will re-open Sunday night at with Globex. I’ll monitor for pullback setups. There probably won’t be much to do if the rally only resumes. Enjoy the weekend!
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- This being a holiday weekend, there is NO Saturday Review.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite the rally already having fulfilled its 1.2035 upside, and despite a confirmed sell signal, a strong overnight rally triggered by German political news created a gap up to new highs testing 1.2200. Extending higher into the weekend suggests probing at least some fresh high at some point Monday, regardless of the session’s resolution, and regardless of whether it is maintained through Tuesday.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying through the week’s earlier 1328.00 overnight high to 1334.00 needed only to close above the week’s 1323.50 intraday high to signal a new upleg underway. The open’s plunge to 1321.00 was recovered to attack the overnight highs, and higher to 1336.00. Post-close action tested 1339.00. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the breakout.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s tests of the 16.95 sell signal had held, and sympathy with Gold enabled an overnight bounce to 17.20. Its post-open reaction down lunged to almost touch 16.95, and then recovered back up to the open’s highs. Extending higher through the close suggests a new rally leg is underway.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s open was greeted with narrow ranging, and still having potential for a bigger corrective bounce up to “higher prior lows” beginning at 150-16 or 151-26.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s reaction down from testing the longstanding 64.75 target extended down to test the 63.15 pullback limit, which held, and reacted up to 64.25.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight gapped up Friday and extended to probe the rally’s first objective at 3.17 by a nickel, still having potential for extending up to 3.29.
Mid-day Update… Does slowdown = down?
Pre-weekend volume contraction.
This morning’s rally peaked within 5 ticks of its 2787.00 doubly-renewed bias-up target. It didn’t require being met. Neither did its 2781.50 renewed bias-up target. A 7-point dip down to 2779.00 still recovered enough to exit the bias environment back above 2781.50. So, proximity to the high’s overbought RSIs makes its retest likelier today.
Back under 2781.00 would start to signal another pullb
ack, first. And 7 points may prove shallow. Even a temporary dip has potential down to 2776.00 or 2773.00.
Meanwhile, this being a Friday afternoon, sponsorship is difficult to attract. Let alone, reinforcements for the prevailing trend. And especially counter-trend sponsorship. More common is to trade out the session within the morning’s range, or to hold probes of either end of it.
So, while breaking lower could turn negative, that wouldn’t be normal. Just reversing down would be difficult if not underway already by the bias environment’s exit. And while a retest of the highs is likely, and likely to hold, Friday Factors enable drifting higher into the weekend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 15, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets are closed Friday in observance of Martin Luther King. Globex opens normally on Sunday and trades through noon before re-opening normally Monday evening.
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Markets close
Globex close
1:00 PM ET
Globex open
6:00 PM ET