Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Tagging up.
Gap up’s retracement launches another upleg.
A dip back to “lower prior highs” around 2748.00 wasn’t required, but it was likely after probing higher. 
Probing higher wasn’t required, but it was likely after repeatedly returning to 2748.00 since the weekend.
But first, price had to get above 2748.00. Whether by gapping up or by surging post-open, a dip down to “lower prior highs” around 2748.00 was likely. The eventual path there began by breaking higher to 2752.25 before the open. Gapping up to 2751.00 surged again to 2753.50. Soon after the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed, a 5-point collapse touched 2748.00.
That test held, as did its retest while 1-minute RSI diverged positively. A bounce triggered the 2749.75 bias-up signal cleanly. And the 2753.50 high was just pierced. The 2757.50 bias-up target is in-play, although another downdraft could develop back under 2751.00.
Not shown on the nearby chart is a reaction down that tested the 2749.75 bias-up signal by 1 point. But the signal held as support when the pullback limit’s first 3 minutes had elapsed. Back above 2751.75 would start to signal the reaction down is done. Otherwise, a fresh low could trigger that next downdraft.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Trepidation.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s opening surge to 2747.75 was retraced relentlessly down to 2736.25 before Monday’s open, probing under Friday’s 2742.00 close. Bouncing into the open would have recovered 2742.50 to reject the overnight slide, but it was barely attacked. Breaking under 2739.00 would have extended the decline, but it held two tests. Firming into the bias environment’s exit resumed the rally back up to the overnight high, which held through the close. Friday’s requirement for a new trend high close was fulfilled, while the afternoon’s 2750.25 bias-up target was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Still hovering narrowly around Sunday night’s 2747.75 high, reacting to news from China finally triggered a dip to attack 2742.50. That was the overnight low, and it was quickly reversed into a recovery to retest Sunday night and Monday afternoon’s highs. Fresh highs at 2749.00 have so far held.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally was reaction, and not action. In other words, it was a product of the overnight and morning’s reversal attempt having failed. Closing above the overnight highs would have reflected new sponsorship. Last night’s action is a shallower version of the same pattern, absorbing a post-open dip only to find significant resistance at the prior high. None of which prevents extending the rally today, even through the close. It’s more of a requirement that not extending the rally through today’s close may prevent it from extending. Meanwhile, probing fresh highs intraday would be vulnerable to another post-open dip, and potentially a deeper correction or reversal of the rally.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2750.25 would be likely to trigger the 2749.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2745.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market to order this is a regularly linked week 5 days so Wednesday is going to be pretty interesting but for now one thing that is interesting is we found some resistance you don’t need opening night attacking 4827 48 it’s recovery intraday on Monday being limited to a test of the opening surge let’s go on keep going it 2748 last night’s open ranging continuing the fluctuation Arrow fluctuation of Monday afternoon around 2748 and then another recovery after note after an overnight dip on some news from China recovery detest 2748 we see a different picture from open to close or comparing open to close barely on Thursday but extending higherdid they spell any possibility that it might be out there a retest of it might be unfinished no unfinished business about so if there is a reaction down it does have a lot of leeway it would have a lot of leeway in that residence here’s the last up late just measured from the upper end of resistance to the consolidation that had developed into the end of the year yeah we can get just as a aggressive speculative impatient pull back down to 2727 2727 75 that’s not minor and it could happen in a fairly quick or Fell Swoop so just keep that in mind to still maintainall theside days in both does relieve some of the pressure of a up down cuestionario but it also accelerates the timing for a resolution to the up-down crash scenario from this inside day today is either going to be nearly ranged or a hold support and therefore avoid the up-down crash in area resolution or resolving the resolving the not likely but the downside does remain vulnerable I want to see a little bit deeper on copper what’s the difference not that it should take so long but I mean said that the overnight that was basicallylast weekend since its open and tried to resume the decline with the likelihood being for a retest of the Lowe’s is trying to avoid that again bouncing a little bit overnight search spiking up but
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Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2750.00 | 2749.75 |
| …would target | 2757.75 | 2757.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2741.75 | 2741.50 |
| …would target | 2736.75 | 2736.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning wasn’t as optimistic as last week’s relentless rally. But the containment lured in buyers with the promise of a new high. They got just that, that and only that, by 1-2 ticks.
The morning’s bias-down signal was never attacked, let alone triggered. Finally probing above Friday’s 2742.00 highs as the morning bias environment began lapsing, the afternoon’s bias-up signal triggered easily. The overnight high didn’t require being retested, but it was pierced, and it held. The afternoon’s 2750.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.”
Already fulfilling the requirement of Friday’s new trend high close for another, now there is no other unfinished business above. And there is no timing requirement to fulfilling 2750.25, which could be met overnight — whether or not that were to create another upside attraction would be important, but trending down through Tuesday’s open could extend.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s drop had held 1.2060 to avoid reversing the trend down. That was likely, since the rally’s 1.2025-1.2035 target area had yet to be fully tested, and a gap was outstanding above. Both were tested before last week ended. Overnight weakness gapped down Monday back under 1.2060 which now leaves outstanding another gap at 1.2100, but from a position of weakness.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday was the rally’s first day not to probe above the prior session’s high. It was an inside day, which helps to relieve the pressure from the ongoing up/down-crash pattern. Early trending Tuesday is less likely to extend, and likelier to reverse in the opposite direction.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday was the rally’s first day not to probe above the prior session’s high, but its intraday low probed under all of last week’s lows. This doesn’t necessarily mean momentum is reversing down, but any early weakness maintained through mid-morning would be likely to extend in that direction.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s strength was in the range and reversed through the morning to test the 151-16 prior low and uptrending pivotal support. Extending down to test the recent 150-14 low is likely if Tuesday morning doesn’t rally to at least attack 152-22.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s pullback to the target’s 62.10 target had held. Monday’s narrowly ranging session leaves no bullish reason to close back under it, and keeping alive the 64.50 area target. Back under 60.45 would signal momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having held its 2.78 pullback limit on Friday, closing back above 2.86 would end the correction and resume the rally. Sunday night’s high touched 2.86 but Monday dipped to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 2.80 close. There is no bullish reason to further delay a recovery.