Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Not exactly a correction.
Rallying back into new highs.
Not recovering 2742.50 had all but marginalized buyers for the morning. Not maintaining a break under 2739.00 had avoided sellers gaining traction. Trending down or probing lower was possible, but not required. And now the morning bias environment has lapsed.
When moment the morning bias environment began lapsing, the upside limitation began failing. Probing above 2742.50 has extended nearly 5 points to attack overnight highs within 2 ticks.
The overnight high isn’t a new Globex trend extreme that would require intraday retest. But being so close, it’s retest is likely. And it’s retest is preferable before assuming any dip is extending down. Meanwhile, overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs also make any premature dip likely to recover for at least a retest of the high.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 9, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Jobs openings report isn’t high-profile, but it is reliable for influencing price action when it diverges from the prior Friday’s Employment Situation report.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2744.00 | 2743.75 |
| …would target | 2750.50 | 2750.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2738.25 | 2738.00 |
| …would target | 2732.50 | 2732.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… That was so last week.
Pre-open dip setting the day’s tone.
The overnight slide eventually fell to 2736.50, but the open was greeted back above 2739.00. Rejecting 2739.00 through the open could have marginalized buyers and pointed down. But the open fluctuated around 2739.00, widely, and without resolving in either direction.
Recovering 2742.50 could have marginalized sellers and pointed back up. But the open’s fluctuation developed entirely below 2742.50 so sellers aren’t marginalized either.
Not recovering 2742.50 does make the morning likelier to remain under pressure, or to absorb bounces, regardless of whether price also trends down. Back above 2742.50 would start to signal that sellers are done, but still not have any upside requirement.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Pop, plop.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Rallying again overnight greeted Friday’s Employment Situation report at new highs attacking the morning’s 2733.00 bias-up target. Its knee-jerk reactions, both up and down between 2730-2735, greeted the open where the report was greeted. It was still a gap up, but it was retraced back down under Thursday’s “lower prior highs” to 2726.50 long enough to hold the 2727.75 bias-up signal as support. The balance of the morning recovered to touch the pre-open high. And when the afternoon’s no-bias environment began lapsing, the balance of the session trended up to a new high at 2743.25. The cash session and futures closes were closely centered around 2742.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open was of one mind, and the balance of the night has been quite different. Spiking up 6 points immediately attacked 2648.00. And that was the end of any upside, no complexity that might otherwise require intraday retest. Ranging flat-to-lower met stronger selling pressure at Europe’s opens that triggered a 4-point drop to unchanged. Unchanged supported a choppy range that is now probing into negative territory down to 2737.75.
If, then…
Friday’s new trend extreme close requires at least another eventual higher close, regardless of any interim price action. Sunday night’s high doesn’t satisfy that requirement. And the requirement need not be fulfilled today. Meanwhile, the week is starting off quite differently than did the first week — let alone, each of the first week’s four sessions, which maintained overnight rallies. Exiting the open in negative territory after having probed above Friday’s highs could marginalize sellers for the day. Exiting the open under Friday’s last relative low — which is now being tested at 2739.00 — could reverse momentum down for at least the morning. So, already probing negative territory, exiting the open back above Friday’s high would make the overnight high’s retest today likely.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2742.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2743.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2745.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it’s well welcome back it is Monday here’s something we haven’t done in a while a Monday market tour it is the first full week of the year 5 days a week first nine holiday week no almost we have a holiday next week which is why there is no no Saturday review this coming weekend so another one Monday to her but anyway as for last night I started someone for trading days of the year which themselves all open to end not so aggressively though as last night’s rally begin maybe a littlethere’s levels can’t hold through the open again after having proved the overnight or after having probed the prior sessions High overnight that tends to reverse momentum down so quite a different possibility for today then the last four days of course by the same token there’s a bearish set up every single element except for greeting reopen under Friday’s highs if they open is greeted under Friday’s highs under the overnight low and yet the open well as or will likely be is bullish as it could have been bearish and it could have been very bearish3 non consecutive negative closes that doesn’t always resolve in an up-or-down crash but the the alternative the last Light clear but occasional alternative is just arrange nearly sideways as that overbought situation is just neutralized that’s going to be the challenge here and silver as well a little lower but still in its range and it’s got some room or at least a little weaker flat to lowerbeforebarely been attacked on Friday and overnight that attraction about being the Gap back to Tuesday’s close in the Looney just gonna run away here not trending to a new I close but spikes or off and retested so that’s that’s not a pattern I would fade and if there’s any kind of pull bag limit it’s 80 card 8040 that if tested would likely reverse back up to at least a fresh High if not refresh eye closed wood top and then the Yen which is
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