Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… No rest.
Rally resumes relentlessly.
The pre-open retest of Friday’s 2698.25 pre-open high had reacted down to touch yesterday’s 2696.00 high as support. The open wasn’t greeted much higher, 
but it was certainly more aggressive. A steeper slope probed substantially higher through every timing window.
The open exceeded 2699.00 to make the bias-up likelier to trigger. The 2703.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up. And now the first hour is extending to 2708.50. All while 3-minute RSI remains persistently overbought.
It’s important to repeat that prior highs didn’t require a retest, let alone a break higher. Also, the interim dip was shallow, and not accumulative. This is new sponsorship, and vulnerable to becoming depleted if reinforcements don’t arrive.
Every timing window exited above 2703.00 and above any higher of its prior test makes the rally’s next higher objectives likely to be met at 2722.00-2727.00. Only closing under 2703.00 today can undermine that likelihood.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Recovery complete, or completed?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2674.50 had signaled that Friday’s late probe under it was an anomaly. Triggering bias-up — more so, renewing the bias-up signal — essentially signaled that a retest of Friday’s 2698.25 pre-open high was in-play. The morning’s 2692.75 renewed bias-up target held through both bias environments and the noon hour in between. Breaking higher into the position-squaring window trended up to touch its 2696.00 target. New intraday highs were avoided, but it was a new high close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Trending up relentlessly has very recently pierced Friday’s 2698.25 pre-open high by 2 ticks. The upside action has been relentless, but the move hasn’t been substantial and the slope hasn’t been steep So shallow, that its reaction down is now touching yesterday’s late 2696.00 high.
If, then…
Friday’s pre-open high didn’t require any retest. And having formed by a singular probe without complexity, it didn’t require intraday retest. Both are still likelier than not — to fresh highs at the 2700.00 area, if not also 2703.00 — but reversing down prematurely could extend down again. Meanwhile, extending higher than 2703.00 is more difficult because the recent pullback was only a shallow dip which didn’t refuel much. Difficult, but possible if carried away with itself, next targeting 2722.00-2727.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2699.75 would be likely to trigger the 2697.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2693.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays morning market tour the retracement is complete that is Friday’s pre-opening High itself not requiring a retest let alone an intraday retest itself being a probe above the two-week-old high can see that anymore 2 week old high before Friday’s open that lacked the complexity which would have required a otherwise required in intraday retest didn’t require and still doesn’t but now it has was never tested Post open because yesterdaypressure was expended just to get down to the interim low that’s not a cumulative that’s not on a Friday by the way out of the end of the year it’s not really trapping shorts and this was proved to have been in a normally so can’t even be counted toward how much deeper of a pull back there was soon as possible and not attractive to reinforcementswhich6110 Stone play Natural Gas three consecutive session before consecutive sessions of gapping of five really or six but three that are out of the range so three that are attributed to trending and including higher closes so again like that just similar to up training sessions very difficult to reverse that that trend not impossible to retrace it corrected even retest the origin of it intraday if there were a pullback of a pullback does get underway here then really it has room down to lower Pryor eyes in this sort of the pattern you really don’t want to see if you’re looking at the
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Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2696.75 | 2697.00 |
| …would target | 2703.00 | 2703.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2687.50 | 2687.50 |
| …would target | 2680.75 | 2681.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The new year’s first session was optimistic throughout. After Friday’s 30-31 point drop from its 2698.25 pre-open high, immediately uptrending wasn’t at all assured. But Tuesday’s 2674.50 open was the minimum requirement to signal that Friday’s post-close portion of its drop was only an anomaly. That was the first step for putting into play a retest of Friday’s pre-open high.
Tuesday’s bias-up signal was renewed and its 2692.75 renewed bias-up target was met to within 3 ticks as the bias environment began. A narrowing consolidation didn’t resolve until one hour following the afternoon bias environment lapsing. But it resolved up as was likely, almost literally exploding higher as was required.
2696.00 was touched at Tuesday’s close. It is natural resistance at a 61.8% retracement of the two-week old high session’s range. Any higher would all but ensure extending to fresh highs at the 2700.00 area, if not also 2703.00. Any higher depended mostly on there having been a deeper interim pullback, for which the new high origin of Friday’s intraday drop disqualified it.
Extending higher than 2703.00 is possible despite too shallow of an interim correction. If carried away with itself, the rally’s next higher objective is 2722.00-2727.00. Similarly, no matter how likely, higher highs aren’t required as there’s no unfinished business above.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending the rally overnight probed the 1.2125-1.2135 target area. A reversal down would be triggered by closing back under 1.2060.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The next higher target at 1311.00-1312.50 was probed Monday night, and then supported Tuesday’s intraday consolidation after gapping up. A durable reversal isn’t likely, and a pullback isn’t required, as closing under 1308.85 would signal is underway and targeting 1297.00 and 1287.00 or lower.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Eking higher Tuesday extended the rally to 17.23, still needing a break under 16.95 to signal the trend reversing down. No matter how likely the rally may have become to pullback, the multiple consecutive intraday trending sessions makes a durable reversal down unlikely.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower Monday night extended down sharply through Tuesday morning, testing the 151-16 buy signal that recovering up to last Tuesday close proved enough to surge Wednesday. Also tested was uptrending pivotal support, which can’t tolerate its next test probing without extending to new lows under 150-14.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging overnight and Tuesday morning didn’t reject the recent rally, keeping alive the 61.10 target.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s open gapped up above Friday’s 3.01 high similar to Friday’s gap up above Thursday’s 2.94 high. Also similarly, a post-open dip back into the prior day’s range held through the close. The 3.17 target remains in-play.