Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s pre-open retest of the 2-week old high followed a relatively shallow interim pullback. Shallow, and narrowly ranging are not accumulation. 
So retesting the high could have been limited to 2703.00. Extending higher established a couple of other potential peaks that could have limited the session high. Its highest at 2714.00 did just that.
2703.00 and 2714.00 each could have attracted counter-trend sponsorship. But 2703.00 was probed early enough and high enough to put into play targets above it. And despite it fulfilling the afternoon’s buying pressure by being the bias-up target, 2714.00 was tested late enough to dissuade counter-trend sponsorship.
Clearly, something relevant happened at 2714.00. It was pierced by a single tick before reacting down 3 points into the close. Closing above it would have made the next higher objective at 2722-2727 more capable of extending higher, or at least ranging sideways. If met Thursday morning immediately after having held 2714.00, then 2722-2727 would be as vulnerable to reacting down as 2703.00 and 2714.00.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing the 1.2125-1.2135 target area overnight Tuesday didn’t improve its gap up. Wednesday’s gap down didn’t extend either, but must hold 1.2060 to keep the target area’s retest likely.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher overnight to 1323.00 was retraced enough to open Wednesday at Tuesday’s 1316.00 high, which served as support through the day’s narrow ranging. Pullbacks still have room down to 1308.85 before reversing momentum down .
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing higher overnight to 17.26 was retraced to open Wednesday flat. Trending up intraday pierced the overnight high by 2 cents, producing the 7th consecutive uptrending session — still unlikely to maintain any sudden reversal down without recovering to retest the upleg’s high.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding 151-16 and uptrending pivotal support Tuesday launched a bounce into Wednesday’s open up to 152-12. An intraday dip filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s close and held it, so that closing any higher Thursday could confirm a recovery underway — especially if also recovering 152-22.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Finally resuming the rally overnight, Wednesday’s gap up extended higher to almost immediately fulfill the 61.10 target, which was exceeded intraday. Closing above 61.10 has potential to also test 61.15-61.65. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength. A pullback has room down to 60.55 before reversing momentum down.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Six consecutive gaps up, and three being above prior highs, broke their trend by ranging flat-to-lower Wednesday. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength. Closing back above Tuesday’s 3.07 high Thursday would confirm the 3.17 target remains intact.
Mid-day Update… Optimistic ahead of news.
More new highs, briefer consolidations.
Already breaking higher during the noon hour to 2712.00, this afternoon’s 2709.00 bias-up signal has triggered. Its 2714.00 bias-up target is in-play. It’s too late to invalidate the signal at 1:30. 
So it could be invalidated only by avoiding a fresh high above 2712.00 and then exiting the bias environment at 2:30 back under the afternoon’s 2703.00 bias-down signal.
The noon hour’s breakout does risk being too optimistic ahead of the 2:00 FOMC Minutes. An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction could fulfill 2714.00 and then reverse down. Already fulfilling 2714.00 before the Minutes could react down more durably.
Actually closing above 2703.00 would put into play 2722.00-2727.00 regardless of today’s high. Overbought RSIs at the high printed during the noon hour, so no retest of the high is required. Not first fulfilling 2714.00 would leave unfinished business above, but not closing above 2703.00 would be more relevant.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 4, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The day before monthly payrolls is not busy. Thursday’s usual weekly reports are joined by several high-profile and influential items. And any reaction to the pre-open ADP will likely be duplicated by post-open reports, like PMI. Then a high-profile and influential (to price action) Fed speaker keeps things alive after the noon hour.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2709.75 | 2709.00 |
| …would target | 2714.50 | 2714.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2703.50 | 2703.00 |
| …would target | 2698.50 | 2697.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.