Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s surge above the original 1.1930 sell signal was retraced overnight and struggled to hold through Thursday morning. Breaking lower through Friday’s open would be credible for extending down. But not yet rejecting the bounce would make 1.2015 likelier to test, first.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-higher ranging into Thursday did not reject any of the recent gain, maintaining the uptrend and the 1283.50 target in-play.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging into Thursday did not reject any of the recent gain, maintaining the uptrend and the 16.85 target in-play.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap down under Tuesday’s 151-16 close wasn’t extended intraday Thursday. Neither was it rejected, whether overnight to form an Island, or intraday. Gapping up above 151-16 Friday could still form an Island reversal, at least targeting 152-22. Just closing above 151-16, which is meanwhile resistance, would suggest some updraft underway.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing fresh recovery highs overnight was retraced before Thursday’s open, and then repeated through the morning. The prior week’s 58.50 gap up was attacked to within almost a dime, where there is natural resistance.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t being greeted from either a position of weakness or of strength, although last Friday’s 2.61 gap had just been filled and held by dipping from a position of strength above 2.71. There was no knee-jerk reaction, as price simply weakened to attack last Friday’s 2.58 low, which can hold to form a durable bottom.
Mid-day Update… The window might re-open.
Morning rally trying to extend.
Only minutes after triggering this morning’s 2687.25 late bias-up signal, the market surged through the open’s 2690.50 high and touched the 2692.50 bias-up target. 
The balance of the morning absorbed a shallow dip back to the open. The noon hour ranged flat-to-higher.
Exiting the noon hour in a surge to fresh highs ran into more bias resistance at the afternoon’s 2695.50 bias-up signal. Testing it at 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias. Not bias-up with a higher target, and not no-bias contained by the bias-up signal.
noN-bias often behaves like both no-bias and bias-up — hovering at the bias signal through the window, then essentially triggering it late as the window lapses. New highs would be almost unavoidable, targeting 2699.75-2700.75 and 2703.00.
Meanwhile, the noon hour’s exit is the only probe above the 2688.00-2692.50 buffer, below which the market become likelier to probe fresh lows under 2679.00 down to 2675.50. Exiting the bias environment back under 2692.50 would reinstate any near-term potential to fulfill those fresh lows before the holiday weekend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 22, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Durable Goods report is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. So is the post-open Consumer Sentiment. And any noticeable reaction to the pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by the post-open reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2692.25 | 2695.50 |
| …would target | 2697.75 | 2700.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2685.75 | 2688.75 |
| …would target | 2679.50 | 2682.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Picking off buyers.
One bullish setup busts, another still tries.
Pre-open action had extended the overnight rally to attack 2690.00. The open’s surge probed it by 3 ticks and then reversed down sharply 5 points. The opening 15 minutes of volatility went out attacking yesterday afternoon’s 2688.25 high.
The session-long rally setup did not complete. It wasn’t decisively rejected, but pretty close. So there is potential for as bearish a consequence as it could have been bullish. Back under 2685.50 would start to signal a retest and probe of yesterday’s lows underway.
Meanwhile, the 2687.25 bias-up signal was still being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window, invoking the grace period. Triggering it late at 10:30, or overlapping it then to trigger noN-bias, could still probe higher. Back above 2688.75 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway.
Regardless, trending doesn’t seem of interest. At least, not this morning. I would view skeptically any updraft or downdraft upon it meeting resistance or support.