Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Try, try again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
With the window closing before the weekend’s seasonal holiday bullishness, resuming Tuesday’s drop couldn’t be delayed. And it would have to be aggressive to quickly reverse the 12-13 point overnight rally. Even more so for that already fulfilling the morning’s 2694.50 bias-up target. Extending any higher would have renewed the bias-up signal AND completed a session-long rally. But post-open sponsorship rejected both bias-up parameters, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. And failing to complete the session-long rally was as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. Plunging 13 points, and then 3 more, probed Tuesday’s lows down to 2679.00. Retesting its oversold RSIs became “unfinished business below,” along with a test of the morning’s 2675.50 bias-down target. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways up to 2688.25, and back down to attack session lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging between 2681.00-2684.00 pierced a fresh low momentarily at Europe’s opens. Quickly recovering back into the range eventually extended the reversal and to break above the range’s upper-end. Now yesterday afternoon’s 2688.25 high is being attacked to within 1 point, touching this morning’s 2687.25 bias-up signal.
If, then…
Another session-long rally setup may be forming. After trending down into yesterday’s close, gapping up above the afternoon bias environment’s high could complete the setup. No specific slope would be required, but sellers would be marginalized, ultimately with potential back up through 2688.50-2692.00 and to new highs above 2700.00. The setup’s basis isn’t yet fully formed by actually probing above yesterday afternoon’s high, perhaps because of the attractions outstanding below. They could be the cause of not completing the setup, too, if it does fully form. In either case, the attractions below could be met by choppiness around yesterday afternoon’s range, without maintaining a trending attempt in either direction. And we’ll anticipate exactly that — a failed attempt to trend down again, only to recover after neutralizing the unfinished business below — whether or not a session-long rally setup fully forms, so long as it isn’t completed.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2688.75 would be likely to trigger the 2687.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2684.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it is Thursday at 7 for Thursdays morning market tour look this afternoon for volume too slow not so much as it will tomorrow that is ahead of the three day holiday weekend which has a seasonal bullishness to it not again for the holiday cheer although it should so much as for just the liquidity impending a liquidityTodd that inhibits sponsorship from stepping in so what’s going on not a lot overnight really you can see the effects of that impending seasonal bullishness and the two sessions of at least morning declines yesterday’s being even more powerful for having rejected an overnight rally the rally right up into the bios of Target 9450 it and it’s 8950 X up signal being rejected through the opening by a tell me what does it is at 10:15 put it into playoff setting test of both buys down parameters 8150 RT 250Now 26 7550 is unfinished business below so is a retested yesterday’s 2679 low for it’s oversold are its eyes and there is some trending here some substantial trending really 6 points worth relative to the three-point overnight range previous to that substantial but it’s still within yesterday afternoon’s range that is setting up potentiallyperception Long Valley is completed after trending down into the prior close if the prior afternoons bias environment high is the afternoons high and then completed by maintaining a gap up above that afternoon High so yesterday was well above the afternoon high but it wasn’t maintained and that set up all but its completion turns out to be as bearish as it could have been bullish well this isn’t yet formed so there’s nothing yet to complete not until actually probing above yesterday afternoonthen we get to monitor weather yesterday afternoon’s high is recovered through the open and if it is that’s a session long railing 2688 226 9250 resistance probably gets taken out and take it out easily and then there’s no requirement in a session long rally for any specific slope or substantiality only that dips be recovered by higher highs we could be back at the housewhat if the session on rally is formed the setup for it is formed by actually testing probing us afternoon’s High 2688 25 and doesn’t complete again that’s as nice as it could have been bullish we can reverse-engineer this and suspect that if it is attempted it won’t succeed so much similar to yesterday’s doesn’t have to plunge but still probe yesterday afternoon’s High because of the be at risk failing to complete the session long Rally Set up and take out lower lows satisfy the unfinished business below2679 2675 50th tested likely to hold likely even to start recovering we can reverse-engineer the attempt not just the formation of a session long rally setup that would be unlikely to complete or if it completely give it every benefit of the doubt but if it doesn’t complete we’re looking lower the meanwhile until there’s actually that formation because of that unfinished business below and because all of this has been expended so recently without even touching yesterday afternoon time we still have to look at the attractions below againuntil then the trend is down or at least bottoming alright looking at other markets gold which Road tire yesterday pretty much cementing or entrenching the upside momentum really defining range that is largely expected to hold or contain closes doesn’t necessarily avoid getting probed intraday but one more higher close today would all but confirm that this is the leg that’s going to fulfill the 8350 objectivea lot of economic reports coming out this morning that could swing out of way but bottom line is that there’s lot of support that was taken out very aggressively yesterday with new sponsorship if it doesn’t detract reinforcements today then at least some sort of corrective bounce is in play and there is at newheiser is unfinished business above so because but not extendthat gapped up dip back to support and then closed higher that support is now a cell signal under 5745 there’s otherwise room up to 5870 before new Highs are targeted new recovery highs Natural Gasnot greeting today’s eia report from a position of strength as in Trenton but not from a position of weakness that would have been the case had there been any unfinished business left outstanding in fact the unfinished business so would be at 1 3395as far as looking for something to to Gage alternative buying pressures and selling pressures vs Bitcoin which since the introduction of Futures has become range-bound not surprising either
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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2684.50 | 2687.25 |
| …would target | 2689.50 | 2692.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2677.50 | 2680.50 |
| …would target | 2672.75 | 2675.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday left outstanding two pieces of “unfinished business below.” Oversold RSIs at the morning’s 2679.00 low, and an offsetting test of the morning’s 2675.50 bias-down target. There’s no timing requirement to neutralize their attractions. Rallying while they remain outstanding would be likely to fail. But their tests remain likely so long as 2688.50-2692.00 holds as resistance.
Testing the attractions below need only be done by backing-and-filling, or by a failed attempt to repeat Tuesday and Wednesday morning’s slides. But those slides were injected into a shrinking window of opportunity ahead of the weekend’s seasonal holiday bullishness. Closing the window doesn’t prevent another slide attempt, it only makes the attempt likely to fail.
So, a failed slide is likely to recover to test resistance above. First neutralizing the attractions below would be likelier to recover back up through 2688.50-2692.00 and to new highs above 2700.00 — perhaps into the weekend by then. Meanwhile, gapping up Thursday would have one chance to already rally to new highs, or else stretch the rubber band to probe under Wednesday’s lows.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1930 bounce limit was probed substantially Wednesday morning, filling a 3-week old gap back to 1.1975. Back under 1.1930 and 1.1910 would reverse the trend back down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s pause had avoided probing Monday’s highs intraday, despite having probed higher overnight. Probing another fresh high overnight again all but ensured trending higher intraday Wednesday, nearing 1277.50-1280.50 resistance.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending higher Wednesday probed overnight highs. Closing higher again Thursday would be likelier to reach the 16.65 target before another pullback.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite Tuesday’s extended decline holding 151-16 through the close, Wednesday morning gapped down to fresh lows and tested 150-20. Closing back above 151-16 would at least rob the decline of its traction, if not also trigger a bigger squeeze. There is otherwise no buy signal.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight produced another gap up above the 57.45 bounce limit that once again reversed back down to the 56.85 sell signal. But rather than break, its touch launched a bigger bounce back above the open’s high The next opportunity to peak is at a gap outstanding from last week at 58.45, or closing under 57.45.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday morning’s slide filled the gap back down to Friday’s 2.61 close. Having originated from a position of strength of closing above 2.71, the dip is likelier to be recovered. And its recovery back above 2.71 and 2.80 would launch a credible recovery. So, Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Time to back-and-fill.
A brief window for fresh lows.
This morning’s 2679.00 low was accompanied by oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs that require an eventual retest. That hasn’t prevented bouncing into and out of the noon hour, to within 1 tick of this afternoon’s 2688.50 bias-up signal. Too late. This afternoon is a no-bias environment, and its upper-end should be defined by 2688.50.
Meanwhile, rejecting both of this morning’s bias-up parameters had put into play offsetting tests of the morning’s both bias-down parameters. Its 2681.50 bias-down signal was tested, but a test of its 2675.50 bias-down target has become “unfinished business below.”
So, about that seasonal holiday bullishness… Recall that there’s a window for injecting a pullback before a decline starts losing sponsorship. Even if we knew with 100% certainty that sellers are done, the attractions below can be fulfilled by sideways ranging. The range’s upper-end is essentially resisted by 2688.00-2692.50, so any bullish scenario requires its recovery.