Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 12/16/17) …The year’s last.
This week I describe the market’s current situation in terms of three major setups in the process of unfolding, which means also describing those setups: Bearish WedEX, Session-long rally, Friday trend extreme close. Along the way, I point out other commonly seen behaviors that appear often and have predictive value. We also discuss and dissect Monday’s two likeliest trading paths, and strategies for trading them. We didn’t have time to cover Bitcoin futures, but I did update the stock* I introduced last Saturday (+25% on the week)… This is 2017’s last Saturday Review, so “bigger picture” coverage will be included in the next two Fridays’ Market Wraps.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ROKU, SAM, BAC, UA, BCS, RDFN, *IIPR, BA, BBY
transcript unavailable
Saturday Review Link
Friday’s session-long rally was fun to trade. Its close left a couple of likely templates to know before Monday’s open. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures surged through my buy signal AND both of my targets Friday, as the week’s action proved a couple of premises. This week will test some others as CME launches futures, too.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2675.75 | 2678.50 |
| …would target | 2681.75 | 2684.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2668.25 | 2671.00 |
| …would target | 2663.00 | 2665.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did it, or didn’t it? It did. They did.
Gapping up above Thursday’s 2664.00 afternoon bias environment high after trending down into Thursday’s close had formed a “session-long rally” setup. It doesn’t require extending steeply, but this one did. It’s only likely to probe each prior timing window’s high, but one. This one probed them all.
The afternoon bias environment’s low was 2677.25. The bearish WedEX’s influence doesn’t prevent interim rallies. It only requires a downward bias. Friday afternoon’s higher and higher highs were irrelevant, so long as they resolved back under 2677.25. First, upward momentum had to stop, which it when the 3:10-3:20 proxy window was exited at the bias environment’s 2682.25 high. Collapsing 8 points probed 3 points under 2677.25 to 2674.25.
The late drop wasn’t maintained. But 2677.25 wasn’t recovered before coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close, and then it was only being overlapped. Futures surging back to 2282.50 through settlement was irrelevant.
So, a lot of buying pressure was expended Friday, without gaining traction for the effort. The new trend extreme close on a Friday was almost credible, except for its leg still overlapping Wednesday’s prior high. That only relieves the obligation for at least one more new trend high close, but not necessarily a new intraday high.
seasonal bullishness, downrend near-term
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- I’LL EMAIL TOMORROW’S LINK TO 9:30 ET SATURDAY REVIEW IN THE MORNING.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Weaker Friday morning tested 1.1755 which must break lower to confirm no bottoming pattern has formed, and that the larger decline has resumed.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1251.00 and 1255.00 during Thursday’s pullback kept alive Wednesday’s post-close momentum, which gapped up at Friday’s open. Drifting back down to unchanged through the morning closed flat on the day.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s pullback had held 15.85 to maintain the potential that Wednesday’s post-close rally had ended the decline’s momentum. Gapping up Friday didn’t extend higher, but was supported intraday by 16.05 to maintain the rally’s momentum.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednedsay’s breakout and Thursday’s confirmation extended higher Friday to test the next buy signal that would be triggered by closing above 154-08.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength gapped up Friday to test 57.40, which must hold as resistance to maintain Wednesday’s 56.80 sell signal targeting 55.50.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not trending down Thursday despite overnight and intraday lower lows down to 2.64 did open the door to begin bottoming. But Friday eventually resumed the decline to new lows. The nearest buy signal would be triggered above 2.72 and confirmed above 2.80.