Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Next?
And back to having no unfinished business above.
Unfinished business above at 2677.75 was fulfilled as the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. Its 3-point reaction down was recovered to higher highs at 2679.00 during the noon hour. Overbought RSIs at the target were neutralized, and not replaced. The 2678.75 bias-up signal did not trigger. There is no higher objective in-play, and no further unfinished business above outstanding.
The session-long rally has probed each prior timing window’s high, with two remaining — the afternoon bias environment, and the last 60-90 minutes. At least one should probe its prior timing window’s high. The final hour could plunge, and still have fulfilled the rally setup if 2679.00 is probed before then.
The bearish WedEX could cause the final hour to plunge. Or it could cause the final hour to drift lower. It can co-exist with the session-long rally, so long as one more fresh high is probed.
Meanwhile, the knee-jerk reaction to Rubio saying “yes” (the first time, try to keep up) should be retraced down to 2666.75. The choppy enhanced volatility environment that was signaled Wednesday is now greeting the Friday Factor’s afternoon slowdown potential. It’s difficult to maintain trending, but no easier to reverse it.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 18, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s post-open report isn’t usually high-profile, and it has no track record for influencing price action.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2675.75 | 2678.75 |
| …would target | 2681.50 | 2684.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2668.75 | 2671.75 |
| …would target | 2662.75 | 2665.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Paradigm shiftiness.
Rubio catalyst does a 540-degree turn, while the market’s content with a 180.
The overnight rally that had been ranging flat-to-higher had just started breaking higher when we finished this morning’s Market Tour. Extending to 2665.25 was retraced 3 points to attack the flat-to-higher ranging from above. The two never touched before surging to 2667.75 pre-open.
Immediately improving another point immediately began consolidating through the 10:15 bias timing window, ranging between 2666.00-2669.00. 
The 2565.75 bias-up target was only attacked to within 1 tick, and the bias-up signal was renewed.
Almost like clockwork, the Rubio catalyst behind yesterday’s drop announced another reversal. Spiking up through the 2671.75 renewed bias-up target to 2675.50. The doubly-renewed bias-up target is the pre-existing 2677.75 “unfinished business above.” It can be neutralized by attacking it to within 1 point.
Almost like clockwork again, the Rubio headline is being walked back, sort of (“hasn’t seen the text”). Even if not, its knee-jerk reaction should be retraced to its 2668.00 origin, probably down to 2666.75. Already, the spike has been retraced to 2670.50. Back above 2673.75 would suggest the high’s overbought RSIs will be retested first, presumably at least 2676.75, too.
Meanwhile, we have two contradictory setups trying to co-exist. Maintaining the gap up above yesterday afternoon’s 2664.00 bias environment high has formed a “session-long rally” setup. Every timing window but one should probe its prior timing window’s high. Which will be difficult this afternoon against the bearish WedEX’s influence. Unless the one window exception is the bias environment or last 60-90 minutes. Either of which could contain a deep slide.
As a reminder, the week’s earlier indications of strong trending attempts, which fail and reverse, continues to play-out. Nothing has changed, and this morning’s rally is as vulnerable to reversing.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… One set of sellers flushed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s night’s swing and Wednesday’s choppiness had suggested the market was primed for trending attempts, regardless of whether any succeeded, which they weren’t likely. Primed for volatility, Thursday’s “dry cleaners morning” was a disappointment as price ranged narrowly. The price collapsed, from 2671.00 down to 2664.50 through the noon hour. The afternoon’s noN-bias environment lapsed at session lows at 2654.75. A 7-point bounce failed as oversold RSIs attracted price back down into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Retesting the 2654.75 low’s oversold RSIs was likely to visit 2653.00. Globex almost immediately fulfilled it, piercing it momentarily by nearly 2 points. Trending back up 4 points eventually surged another 3, and then added a point ranging flat-to-higher testing 2661.00 into and out of Europe’s opens. The range is now trying to break higher.
If, then…
Triggering a buy signal above 2659.50 into yesterday’s last half-hour was momentarily productive, and could have triggered a compelling hold-long setup. The buy signal was sacrificed to retest the low’s oversold RSIs and to test its room for noise at 2653.00. Having neutralized their attraction below, another buy signal should be much more productive. The overnight rally is a good start, but it must be maintained to trigger bias-up to even attack “unfinished business above” at 2677.75 before the afternoon’s bearish WedEX’s influence. Post-open weakness isn’t required to remain within yesterday afternoon’s range.Meanwhile, gapping up above yesterday afternoon’s 2664.00 high would form a “session-long rally” setup. That can co-exist with the bearish WedEX only by rallying into a late-afternoon collapse.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2662.25 would be likely to trigger the 2659.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2656.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Friday at 7 for Fridays morning market tour interesting set up here where are they headed up or down how’s that for precision open with the morning is unlikely to sit still that possibility probability actually yesterday and yesterday the morning actually became a dry cleaners morning just sitting still or at least remaining in the range and relatively narrow rain it compensated for that delay as you can say we are in an environment that wants to trend has not necessarily too widely to Spirit camps of opinion that are trying to Trend in either direction but that’s the net result is it tries to Trend in either direction and remember the one unlikelihood at least so far is that those attempts won’t succeed that they’ll get so far and then reversedand since we have a very sweat X influence this afternoon it’s unlikely that a session long rally setup rally into the clothes so maintaining the Gap above 2664 in the late afternoon and then great potential to collapse from there otherwise it would be in contradiction to the very sweat X the session long rally setup played out any other way if it were the trigger which means it probably wouldn’t form that way so the two alternatives andthe upside momentum it lapse closing under 7650 reverse momentum back down the pound got a pretty big correct to bounce out of here also testing 13450 that’s a pretty critical level more critical is to reject yesterday’s close above 130 425 to resume or maintain really the top penis this was not sufficient to reflect the distribution or the line pressure that was satisfied at the highs but brexit talks or brexit news I should say so this is what needs to beand that is regards the Bitcoin halving shredded down or at least stabilized was good for ethereum Bitcoin trending backup perhaps it’s that the benefit rotation out of and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 200 pretty soon
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