Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not confirming Tuesay’s breakout on Wednesday had made Thursday weakness likely. Thursday’s shallow weakness was unlikely to extend Friday, so it firmed back up into the range. Ultimately, 1.1760 remains unlikely to be recovered before returning to new lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying sharply to fresh highs Friday above 1285.50 is targeting 1301.00 and potentially 1313.00. Being a Friday breakout, immediately follow-through requires pullbacks to hold 1290.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s rally above 17.11 probed the 17.30 buy signal through the noon hour’s exit. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a breakout.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping a little deeper overnight still avoided trending Friday beyond the prior several sessions’ range, despite bouncing into the noon hour up to 154-05.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holding the 55.35 pullback limit for three days finally resolved by rallying sharply overnight to the 56.00 buy signal, and then through it Friday to attack the 56.65 confirmation level.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying overnight probed above downtrending resistance of the two-session Falling Wedge pattern, but held the trendline’s last contact point and 3.12 to avoid reversing the trend up. At least a retest of 3.05 is likely.
Mid-day Update… What did I miss?
Nothing.
This morning’s bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. It came within view of lapsing 10-15 minutes earlier. And only several minutes prior to that, another blip-down probed a fresh session low 5 ticks under 2579.00‘s prior low.
Then it was right back up into the range, testing 2582.25 resistance. Through the noon hour. And now into the afternoon bias environment.
Nothing about this persistent ranging indicates that sellers are marginalized. Or that buyers have a pulse. WedEX’s influence is now relevant. It doesn’t require trending, and doesn’t prevent a downdraft. But a downdraft would be likely to recover back above its origin. And there’s potential to drift, firm, or rally into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 20, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s post-open LEI has a reliable track record for influencing price action, and it’s also high-profile. But it’s the session’s only report.
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2586.50 | 2585.50 |
| …would target | 2591.50 | 2590.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2578.00 | 2577.00 |
| …would target | 2571.75 | 2570.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A dry cleaners morning, indeed.
REMINDER: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS AFTER THE OPEN UNTIL NOON.
The overnight tests of this morning’s 2580.25 bias-down signal produced bounces to 2584.50 and 2585.50. The open was nevertheless greeted back down at 2580.25. The opening 15 minutes of volatility fluctuated around it until a last-minute blip-down pierced fresh lows.
Blips-down are spikes that blip back up. As this one did, recovering to 2582.25 through the first half-hour, and another point higher after the first half-hour. But only temporarily, blipping-down again under the open’s range. And invoking the grace period.
2580.25 ultimately held at 10:30, but it was overlapped 1-2 minutes before and after. It’s not a reliable no-bias signal, which would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2588.00 bias-up signal. Being an expiration session doesn’t help this morning’s predictability. Sellers aren’t necessarily marginalized, and there’s not a reliable upside attraction. Another downdraft remains possible.
Meanwhile, another setup that triggered, signaling inertia. Four of the first hour’s 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant price. Just three would be enough to suggest the morning won’t trend. So, more than at any other time, be careful not to force a trade this morning.
Gone until noon. Gladly.