Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The less things change.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s rally greeted Thursday’s open above Wednesday’s 2571.50 high at 2574.00. Maintaining the gap through the open triggered a passively bullish WedEX by proxy, which will be influential this afternoon and Monday morning, but not this morning. But WedEX was the least of it. The open immediately resumed rallying and extended sharply higher through the afternoon’s bias environment. Gaps were filled, including the structure containing the gap back to last Wednesday’s 2591.50-2593.00 close. But not the gap itself, and not the afternoon’s 2590.50 bias-up target. After retracing 87% of the drop from last Tuesday’s 2594.50 overnight high to Wednesday morning’s 2555.50 low, the balance of yesterday afternoon dipped back down to 2584.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Slightly lower and lower lows extended gradually overnight to test this morning’s 2580.25 bias-down signal by 3 ticks. The latest dip has been retraced to test yesterday’s late low as resistance up to 2584.50. That’s only 1 point under yesterday’s close.
If, then…
REMINDER: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS AFTER THE OPEN UNTIL NOON. Dipping into yesterday’s close relieved some of the rally’s overbought situation, and overnight action more so. Absent a suitable catalyst among pre-open headlines, the bias-down’s support will likely avoid triggering. That wouldn’t ensure a morning rally, but the afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence would be likely at least to attack yesterday’s highs. Rallying aggressively this morning could affect the afternoon’s WedEX by already probing new highs before entering the afternoon’s bias environment. The highs are a dangerous area to try defending when weekend illiquidity starts bearing down, which could invert WedEX’s influence to bearish. WedEX could also invert if a morning drop were exited under relevant support. Ultimately, the afternoon’s direction may be a determined by what “unfinished business” remains outstanding when the noon hour ends.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2582.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2580.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2585.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2588.00 bias-up signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market or a couple quick programming notes Here 3 actually what is as you can see we have a new term assignment these happen very regularly and sometimes by Mike using More Often by adobe’s choosing just be sure you’re getting the link the current link to the chart room from the blood and if you can’t find it there right away it’s actually at the link but if you can’t find it there right away of course you’re welcome to email me programming number to reminder add this morning I’m going to be here at through the open through the open as in through 10 and then I’m away until noon and then back for the rest of the day unrelated we’re not doing Saturday review tomorrow cancelling Saturday review tomorrow as well as of course as usual during the holiday weekend next weekend so if you have stuff that you want to review please be sure to bring them up this afternoon with the market being as wild and volatile as it’s been pretty much been doing a bigger picture review every day so I’m sure that will just add a couple things today did today’s market wrap and that’ll suffice alright what’s going on so yesterday gapped up gapped up above Wednesday’s range Wednesday’s rains at once again held while chipping away at 2563 75 Snapback up considerably we weren’t prepared for that reversal and any reversal here as potential back up to the highs if not higher it happens and it did happen so quickly that is so quickly as Corrections do if they’re not coming from basing which this is not basing their retracing and retracements of the prevailing trend of what turns out to be the prevailing Trend by it resuming retracement Corrections are steeper and more productive more alluring that’s their job is to attract counter-trend trap it refuel the prevailing trend Wednesday Wednesday mornings Tuesday night’s new Globex Trend extreme overnight I at least if it doesn’t require being retested we can we at least use it as a basis for identifying the overall trend Wednesday’s 5550 low 87% of a 68% correction to 2589 so it’s imperative for the rally for the recovery at least Wednesday if not maybe even 2:50 which was standing I should say that can be testedbut that’s going to be otherwise if not at least because of the correction or at least taking what was over and correct correct correctsome of the overbought and then overnight that has extended it did extend at least briefly that six points out behind the yesterday’s closed another four points overnight to 7950 actually testing a T25 which is this morning’s bias down signal tacked it to Atlanta Tech pierced it by 3 tix 8025 seems to be influential I think we’ve got the right by us down signal for these two pieces of evidence we don’t usually get we don’t always get evidence ahead of time this is always helpful we also might start doing that as having tested 8025 open and holds Hill put in to play an offsetting test of the biceps tendon which is 88 would you get and gets us in proximity to be testing that I guess Target afternoon a lot can happen in the afternoon just so you know it’s not an assurance that the bullish Red X is going to influence price necessarily it did trigger late it’s also not an insurance that because it’s a bullet X that the afternoon will behave bullishly it is possible that this morning rather than just probing yesterday’s hydrotesting because it won’t require but if this morning anyway and rally and neutralizes 50 not just the Gap back-to-back the last Wednesday’s close 93 area but also the afternoon or in the morning and afternoon to inverting the bullish Red X to bearish so don’t be assured of the specific afternoon influence of the X that’ll be heavily dependent in the morning and afternoon extending it a little bit more well if that puts into play for 75 if the afternoon is 475 dangerous really risky for trending down to the afternoon wouldn’t put anything past the pattern this particular or today’s expiration it’s also dangerous dangerous into a Wednesday afternoon Friday afternoon weekend Wednesday equally difficult to defend against against all the wayalleviate the oversold getting over black condition from your staff and type it looking at other markets to the Yen did something very nice yesterday wow basically fluctuating unchanged Wednesday’s Gap up above all prioritize needed at some point to be were tested from above also Wednesdays breakout itself it’s breakout session needed to be confirmed with the higher close and yes they said she did not confirm with a higher close second consecutive are close but what it did do after after having dip to touch lower prioritize yesterday’s high did neutralize the attraction above the Gap back to Wednesday’s open by breaking back under Wednesdays Lowe’s but undermined the breakout the momentum and it really requires and mediately resuming the rally if the rally is valid the rally is trying to resume immediately so far it is Rally back up to or Wednesday been recovered hovering there that’s not enough proof yet still need to close actually close above yesterday’s highs above 88-85 8880 and by the way any negative Claus is going to be very excited actually got the inflection point is which is a fresh low in this particular pattern but just closing negative after trying after being in position to be to reject the otherwise bearish development yesterday then failing to exploit the opportunity to reject that this morning has been speaking this morning before closing low enough to resume the decline you can basically the arguing the resolution to that argument should be pretty productive in whichever direction the sellers higher and higher while trying to confirm that this is just been a pattern neutralizing downside attractions and doing what the last rally tried prematurely to do probing hire overnight probing hire overnight getting slammed here right back down to yesterday’s highs so that’s really what we want from a bicycle we wanted to be productive we wanted to get back up to the trend in this case so you can see it keeps coming into resistance or coming into resistance has then met pessimistically overnight gold silver will it get up enough to actually buy nearby 1711long blonde has had a couple of days opportunity since Wednesday is open to break through 15402 and has notand isn’t indicating any in any inclination to do so this morning the longest bull that killed 153 momentum hasn’t reversed down crude oil just cannot break under 5535 pullback limits cell signal needed to close under it and instead continually overlapped it for multiple sessions which is usually a good tell that that is that that’s holding that’s been our posture last several days overnight but we don’t know until there’s a recovery actually about 56 confirmed above 5665 overnight 56 is tested and now being probed there’s no Assurance of actually recovering it but in the context of having had ample opportunity to break on 255 35 and also having an attraction back to the hives that intraday research however and founded it may have been it wasn’t rejected immediately so it’s retest is likely and then Natural Gas has formed a falling wedge felling wedges are generally by mainstream anticipated to resolve favorably Rising wages unfavorably breaking likely or vulnerable at least to resolving down just as much so as to resolving up and aggressively so it is interesting that overnight there is strength in here but the indication of valid strength is to get back out above that connector most recent touch that is of downtrending resistance and down turning resistance what was used to create the down training resistance after the anchor connector was that last relative I at 3:10 311 we already know there’s resistance to 312 without getting out of 310 311 312 any kind of attempt to break out to the upside is not going to prevent extending down and again any questions good luck today
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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2589.25 | 2588.00 |
| …would target | 2594.75 | 2593.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2581.25 | 2580.25 |
| …would target | 2576.00 | 2574.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS AFTER FRIDAY’S OPEN UNTIL NOON. ALSO, THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW IS CANCELLED.
WedEX had failed to trigger Wednesday. Thursday’s gap up above Wednesday’s range remedied the situation, triggering a passively bullish WedEX by proxy. It influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning, but not Friday morning.
A lot of other upside attractions were neutralized during Thursday’s tremendous intraday rally. And 87% of the drop from last Tuesday’s 2594.50 overnight high has been retraced in a relatively brief period of time since Wednesday morning’s 2555.50 low. Nothing prevents reacting down immediately.
But Thursday afternoon’s bias environment exit did already produce a 6-point dip into the close. And the intraday high came “only” within 1 point of fulfilling its 2590.50 bias-up target. The gap back up to last Wednesday’s ~2593.00 close and the “new Globex trend extreme” above it were somewhat attacked. Probing any higher would have potential to 2600.75.
The gap back down to Wednesday’s 2563.75 close requires being filled eventually. That specific level’s retest is already vulnerable to extending down sharply. So, any potential to retest the highs or at least to firm Friday afternoon would become unlikely if Thursday night or Friday morning were to dip too much.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s failure to confirm Tuesday’s breakout extended slightly lower into Thursday’s open, and essentially remained exclusively in negative territory intraday. Price was still contained within Tuesday’s range for a second consecutive session, suggesting that momentum hasn’t yet versed down — or else requires gapping down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming to range Thursday within the 1277.50-1280.50 range leaves the pattern vulnerable to break in either direction into the weekend, which would be credible for extending into next week.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly and extending slightly higher intraday was largely contained between 17.05-17.11 and remained vulnerable to closing under 16.95 and resuming the decline.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight didn’t help to confirm that Wednesday’s test of 154-02 would resolve up. Thursday’s narrow inside day at least avoided closing back under 153-22. Back under 153-00 would start to signal a retest of 151-16 or new lows under 150-16.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating narrowly for a second consecutive session Thursday essentially held the 55.35 pullback limit which keeps alive the 56.00-56.65 buy signal.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted neither from a position of weakness nor strength. The session’s initial bounce was retraced to retest Wednesday and Thursday’s lows down to 3.05. Closing back above 3.12 would resume the rally, but there is otherwise room down to 2.97-3.00.
Mid-day Update… Running out of attractions above.
Detour powered by fumes.
Anticipation for today’s tax reform vote in the House (which just began). Reaction to five consecutive gaps down that held tests of 2563.75 support. 
Overkill and extension of a corrective bounce. A combination of these, and more. Whatever the catalyst to today’s rally, it has been productive.
And it has neutralized a lot of upside attractions. Gaps back up to Tuesday and Monday’s closes. Ineffectual pessimism and upside traction that had suggested the week’s decline would at least be corrected. And now the closest thing to an upside requirement — the gap back to last Wednesday’s 2590.50 close — is in-play as this afternoon’s bias-up target.
Meanwhile, resistance at 2588.00 is being influential. Earlier, resistance at 2584.25 was influential, too. Its 3-point pullback resolved up, but there’s no assurance now of a shallow pullback or its recovery. And the current pullback just exceeded 2 points.
There has yet to be a fresh high since signaling bias-up. It’s too late to reject the signal, until exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under its 2579.25 bias-down signal. Reversing down prematurely would be entirely credible for extending down anyway, and without limitation. Otherwise, there remains potential to new highs.