Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Surging overnight to gap up Thursday was retraced post-open to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s close. Resuming the rally instead of rejecting the gap up give the corrective bounce a window to extend before resuming the decline, unless the decline were to resume into the weekend.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially firming overnight to fresh highs at 1289.00 was reversed through Thursday’s open but largely recovered into the afternoon. The recovery wasn’t strong enough to confirm Wednesday’s rally, but it avoided rejecting the recovery attempt.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s open slid to 16.95 and ranged there choppily through the session. There was already no bullish reason even to attack it as support, so any further weakness would be credible for extending down to 16.70 and 16.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Thursday extended to test the 153-22 pullback limit. It was pierced momentarily before firming into the afternoon, barely filling the gap back to Wednesday’s close.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s intraday surge didn’t reverse down deeply enough to complete a reversal signal. Still ranging narrowly overnight and Thursday failed to exploit any opportunity to confirm by proxy. So, a retest of Wednesday’s high remains likely.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, gapping up created extra room to absorb a relatively shallow negative knee-jerk reaction down. It was recovered back into positive territory, confirming the recovery remains intact.
Mid-day Update… What about now?
Lower low goes the distance.
The open’s test of “lower prior highs” was tested down to 2574.25. That could have served as a bottom. In fact, it was recovered up to 2583.75. But not the morning’s bias environment was exited back down at the lower prior highs. 
And the noon hour was entered lower.
Actually, the noon hour was entered at 2570.00, which would have been the renewed bias-down target. That’s where the noon hour was exited, too, after an interim dip. And the interim dip wasn’t arbitrary — it touched the afternoon’s 2563.75 bias-down target.
Wait, there’s more.
The afternoon bias environment was entered back above the 2569.25 bias-down signal. No-bias triggered after holding tests of both bias-down parameters. In the morning, this setup would put into play tests of both bias-up parameters. Not in the afternoon. While at least the 2575.75 bias-up signal is likely to be tested, and was, it should also contain the no-bias environment’s upper-end, and is.
Back under 2571.50 would start to signal another downleg underway to fresh lows. Otherwise, back above 2579.00 would start to signal a bigger recovery underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 10, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s other reliably influential econ report is Friday’s post-open Consumer Sentiment number. Friday is also the calendar’s slowest this week, with that being its only econ report.
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2578.75 | 2575.75 |
| …would target | 2584.25 | 2581.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2572.00 | 2569.25 |
| …would target | 2567.00 | 2563.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias down, or bias done?
Support holds an extended decline.
The overnight drop extended pre-open down to 2575.50. Its reaction touched this morning’s 2580.25 bias-down target as resistance, and greeted the open at 2577.00. 
Bouncing back up to 2580.25 held as resistance again, briefly dipping to 2574.25, but reacting back up to 2580.25 in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.
Not renewing the bias-down doesn’t prevent resuming the decline. This is still a bias-down environment. In fact, extending up to 2583.00 has reacted down to attack 2577.00. And under 2575.50 would confirm the trend is down, probably into the weekend.
Meanwhile, holding a test of “lower prior highs” at 2577.00-2578.00 through the open can be the bottom that I described during this morning’s Market Tour. Back above 2581.50 would start to signal momentum reversing back up. Entering the noon hour back above the morning’s 2586.00 bias-down signal would be helpful confirmation, but not necessary.