Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… More toppiness.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap down actually represented a recovery from an overnight probe under Tuesday’s lows. A post-open dip to 2581.50 barely attacked the 579.75 overnight low. The dip held the 2582.75 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2589.25 bias-up signal. The morning’s bias environment exit rallied into the afternoon’s bias environment entry, meeting the upside objective and triggering the afternoon’s 2588.25 bias-up signal. Its 2594.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business above” as flat-to-higher ranging only touched 2592.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex’s flat-open soon spiked up to 2594.25. Reacting down nearly 3 points was recovered by another spike to 1 tick higher, fulfilling Wednesday afternoon’s 2594.50 unfinished business above. The interim dip’s complexity created a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest, often the same day. Probably not today, because price collapsed into and out of midnight down to 2584.50. Like a butterfly flapping its wings across the Pacific Ocean, literally, a 500-point plunge in the Nikkei seems to have been the catalyst. A 6-point bounce tried to recover the collapse, but its 6-point 61.8% retracement ahead of Europe’s opens began reversing back down from 2590.50. Extending down aggressively at this morning’s 2586.00 bias-down signal is probing under Tuesday night’s 2579.75 low and this morning’s 2580.25 bias-down target.
If, then…
There’s no calculable unfinished business above. Fulfilling yesterday afternoon’s 2594.50 bias-objective had room up to 2600.75, and its test was likely, but never required. There’s now structural unfinished business above. — the new Globex trend extreme — but its intraday retest isn’t required on any time frame. And probing yesterday’s highs overnight makes opening under the overnight lows bearish. Already, yesterday’s intraday lows are being probed. None of which yet signals a trend change underway. The 2577.00-2579.00 area is still very supportive, and holding its test through the open could reverse the relentless one-way overnight trending. Otherwise, the next lower objective would be 2570.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2578.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2580.25 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal, essentially good morning and welcome it is Thursday it’s time for Thursdays Morning Market to her we’ve got more signs of top oenis the biggest sign of all being on overnight plunge now about 15 or more points 16 we called it yesterday yesterday had left outstanding the afternoons bias up Target 25 9450 unfinished business above late reaction down touched pierced what would have been a cell signal earlier but was too late to be credible and instead held looks like a flurry of China economic numbers came out and helped facilitate a spike up to 9425 that right away big enough to that and come within 3 minutes of the 9450 objective neutralizing it it was touched anyway more importantly look at that into dip that interim dip the reaction up that’s complexity because of a single tick which I’m giving a benefit of the doubt to because there’s an extra tick there as well actual Touch of 9450 again and that’s significant because if that’s and its new high during Globex for the trend it’s a new glove xtrend extreme and being a new globe and extreme it requires intraday retest eventual intraday retest often the same day today there was an extreme ahead of Tuesday’s session pretty decent reaction down in the interim nothing like what has happened here overnight but that was very quickly at the market collapse that was the only time which was the unfinished business above as a bias objective was neutralized and in doing so and neutralizing it created unfinished business at 9450 breaking under the initial opening under the initial what happens when you’re being tested and it only takes a little. This downside momentum which is single-minded it’s one-way Relentless overnight trending which very often not always very often at the open the sponsorship participants in the overnight move in this case of collapse pretty sure the participants in that move they are overseas versus the US they’re not defending they’re looking to get out and regular time Tradersstillmy dad that off happens often enough as well and they had better there’s one more lower objective yes weeks then down through the open the next lower objective 2577 2779 actually I’ve been looking at this point there is one more line of support here as of trending support but if that doesn’t hold then we’re looking at 2570 and not a lot of support at 2570 more like obligatory or at least some potential for a bounce now this drop overnight I just to see a just to see where we’re at verses by his parameters that is or was Tuesday night’s low 25 to 86 the signal you can see the influence inflection there 86 especially but that fails and breaks back under 8025 signal basically 2570 that’s a big move it’s also possible that we get all that out of the way at the open if there’s not too big it up again and make it attractive for another Slaughter then instead of opening and its weakness buyers won’t be marginalized they may be waiting in the wings a lot that can happen in this particular pattern between now and the open one thing you might be developing inverted head-and-shoulders 16018 2586 so keep an eye on that pattern could be alright to be sure but we know that there’s a look at the gap down back to Tuesdays open under all that needs to be filled from a reversal down on the way anyway one of the catalysts to the overnight drop was a noted yesterdaywhat made it interesting to comment on yesterday afternoon and hasn’the tried it yesterday is open but failed more so chipping away at its resistance in that here overnight is actually taking off for at least probing a little bit higher hardly commensurate with a 500 Point drop I think widely commensurate with a 500 Point drop in the UK but that looks to be perhaps one of our best setups going right now is the potential for the Yen triggering a recovering offsetting that with the new K I don’t know to what degree but that looks to be an interesting catalyst if it can maintain this recent break Tuesdays High try Mondays High which was poised to do or left us poised to do today that’s bullish a little bit of last week’s low for two-week-old low and 131 was premature in doing that is forming an accumulative pattern taking time back and filling there is this gap down to 130 90 it was attacked overnight back to the only I haven’t recovered one 3190 basically that might qualify as a by signal or signal backup of 13190 instead of well while waiting for 1:30 to 50 which would still be mandatory required to recover as well 3190 + gold but it does require follow through today becoming 1288 to there being a bottom underwear being tested here pre-open silver meanwhile underperforming for a change quite a bit recently still needing to get more so if it does get to 1730 keep an eye on that simultaneously with gold could be some some similarities in a directional change their they can both react at the same time that’s really needed too convincingly breakthrough not just last time but also extend higher so but it’s been a while it’s expanding the same energy same sponsorship not indicating with a steeper slope or reaction to recover absence there is vulnerability to before reversing momentum down crude oil huge huge knot but anyway not rejected retraced quite a bit of the morningwhich was a flipbut not a rejection at least not yet pivot reversal type of structure lacking just a couple of features the sharp gap down the ongoing uptrend this in pause for a day and then the clothes under the mornings loso can’t say that momentum is reverse down I’ll raise the cell signal today it currently it is still 4:55 3035 but a retest of yesterday’s high is likely if there’s no immediate follow through already this morning an overnight there certainly isn’t and then finally natural gas greeting today’s report from a position of strength and really as of Tuesday’s close needing all ready to have rejected the 309-312 by closing back under 309 it had to have been given the benefit of the doubt by proxy gapping down yesterday after 3 or 9 instead clearly that’s not the case so there is potential for a reaction down but it’s just temporary on the way to higher Heights any questions good luck today
next targeting 2570.00. Exiting the open under 2584.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2586.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2588.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2597.25 | 2594.00 |
| …would target | 2603.00 | 2600.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2589.00 | 2586.00 |
| …would target | 2583.50 | 2580.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending Wednesday wasn’t unlikely. It was unlikely to extend. And likely to be reversed. The morning’s gap down probed lower, albeit not all the way down to the 2579.75 overnight low, which had probed Tuesday’s low. The morning’s bias-down signal held in time to put into play an offsetting test of its 2589.25 bias-up signal. So, trending or not, the dip became required to reverse up.
And while reversing up, the attraction enabled triggering the afternoon’s 2588.25 bias-up signal. The bias environment ranged narrowly flat-to-higher, steepening its slope slightly into the 3:37 position-squaring window. That proved too much as its reaction dipped back down to test the bias environment’s 2589.00 low. It was too late to be strong-handed sponsorship, and the afternoon’s 2594.50 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business above.”
Wednesday’s late dip back under 2590.50 is interesting, as the close was still overlapping it. Decisively recovering it would have formed a position of strength to help absorb a reaction down Thursday. Prior probes above 2590.50 were also rejected. Since 2600.75 is likely to be tested after fulfilling the 2594.50 unfinished business, reacting back down under 2590.50 would be very bearish. Otherwise, closing any higher would next target 2617.25.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s narrowly ranging, flat-to-higher session filled the gap back up to Monday’s 16.30 close, neutralizing its attraction above, and leaving little if any reason not to resume the decline without delay.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up from Tuesday’s test of 1275.50 extended to probe last week’s 1285.00 high up to 1288.00. Closing above 1288.00 would confirm a close above 1285.00 had put into play 1301.00 and 1313.00, but 1285.00 was still being tested as support into the afternoon.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s close at 16.95 support produced a gap up Wednesday that extended to test last week’s 17.25 high. Closing any higher and above 17.30 to confirm could leave behind a wide trading range. But the afternoon reacted back down from testing prior highs. Closing under 16.95 — if not just testing or attacking it — would target 16.70 and 16.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s flat-to-lower ranging at 154-10 still had room down to 153-20 before suggesting the rally is ending — although it is suspicious for not yet becoming aggressive, only relentless.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A very volatile session started weaker and blipped-down only slightly further on Wednesday morning’s EIA report. Its recovery soon surged to fresh highs attacking 58.00, but only momentarily before retracing to within a dime of the morning’s low. Firming into the afternoon was essentially unchanged on the day, and still having room down to 55.35 before signaling the trend reversing down.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not already gapping down under 3.09 Wednesday all but confirmed the bearish setup wouldn’t trigger. In fact, the session extended to recovery highs, attacking 3.20.
Mid-day Update… Trending attempt #2.
Bias-up triggered.
This morning’s gap down extended lower only to attack yesterday’s lows, let alone the overnight lows. But the morning remained within yesterday afternoon’s range, 
until the bias environment began lapsing.
And it has been straight up since then.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2582.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2589.25 bias-up signal. Its attraction finally created a break above yesterday afternoon’s highs. Which led to a test of this afternoon’s 2588.25 bias-up signal. It triggered, putting into play its 2594.50 bias-up target.
There’s no fresh high since before 1:20, and price has been fluctuating around 2590.50. So, upside momentum may take another pause like this morning’s bullish setup. There’s room down to 2586.00 before reversing the trend down. But resuming the rally could probe fresh highs up to 2600.75.