Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Fashionably late, again.
Morning’s range resolves up into the afternoon.
2574.00 support held a test, a touch and an attack while interim bounces chipped away at 2577.00 resistance this morning. 
Recovering 2578.00 as the bias environment began lapsing was a likely marker of a valid breakout. Trending up relentlessly into and out of the noon hour is retesting Wednesday’s highs.
Structurally, today’s rally has done the minimum required by retesting Wednesday’s 2581.50 opening print. Calculably, Wednesday’s 2580.00-2585.50 opening range is being retraced by 61.8% up to 2583.75, and any higher would require at least fully retracing the high. As for patterns and timing windows, triggering this afternoon’s 2580.50 bias-up signal has put into play its 2586.00 target.
Fulfilling the 2586.00 target and avoiding a new trend high close on a Friday would not necessarily reverse momentum down, but it would not be bullish. And reversing down remains a risk today, since buyers are once again late to start trending. Regardless, nothing is threatening the 2590.50 higher objective that remains in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar is empty but for a Fed speaker who is generally reliable for triggering a price reaction. A reaction during the noon hour when he speaks may be short-lived.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
12:10 PM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2583.50 | 2580.50 |
| …would target | 2589.00 | 2586.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2577.75 | 2574.75 |
| …would target | 2572.25 | 2569.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Unenthused.
Tepid optimism ahead of payrolls finds tepid selling after it.
That optimism ahead of this morinng’s Employment Situation report was ineffectual, after all. Yesterday afternoon’s late rally to fresh highs,
its failure to close above a prior high, and the shallow overnight range hovering around those highs. All optimistic, but ineffectual.
Contrary, or not, sentiment hasn’t been extreme. So, neither has its reactions. Post-open price action hasn’t flat-lined, but it remains contained within the range defined by yesterday’s late surge.
There was some possibility of trending earlier. The pre-open news triggered a blip-up that pierced the 2580.50 bias-up signal by 3 ticks. But it reacted down immediately, back into the overnight range and under yesterday afternoon’s highs to 2577.00. The 2579.00 open collapsed to test 2574.00, back toward yesterday afternoon’s lows.
Now 2577.00 is holding tests as resistance. No lower objective is in-play — the bias-up signal’s test was rejected pre-open, not post-open — but a dip to 2571.50 is becoming increasingly likely until recovering 2578.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Waiting.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s flat open at 2576.00 bore no hint of the overnight collapse that had tested 2563.75. That was isolated to the overnight by holding above Wednesday’s lows through Thursday’s open. But the recovery was also isolated to the overnight since the open also failed to extend higher. Another collapse also tested 2563.75, and also recovered entirely. The noon hour and bias environment ranged narrowly until the final hour, which finally probed positive territory up to 2578.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Other than to probe slightly higher highs, overnight action has been unremarkable. A narrow range has been centered around yesterday’s late break to fresh highs. Europe’s opens did trigger a relatively quick slide from 2579.25 to 2576.00. But it already has been retraced entirely, including piercing a fresh high by 1 tick.
If, then…
Thursday’s final hour probe into positive territory was still short of Wednesday afternoon’s prior highs — both too shallow and too late to be reliable as strong-handed sponsorship. Last-minute optimism that doesn’t gain traction ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. A knee-jerk reaction down is possible in even the most bullish scenario. But the vulnerability to trending down is mitigated somewhat having held two tests of the 2563.75 relevant low. Again, holding a test, or two tests, or a dozen tests would be more reliable if its close were back above a relevant level. Rallying would target a retest of 2585.50, if not also the next objective at 2590.50. Fresh lows could extend intraday down to 2253.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.
Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market or we have just as a reminder the top Saturday review tomorrow we’re going to talk about first and foremost of course whatever pattern is left left with us today which is going to be interesting because there’s a employment situation report coming and that’s had impact that had impact pretty big marker in the pattern 1 month ago when that happened not expecting anything any different response but as has been as was expected this week has been volatile and plenty of training opportunities not interrupted which we really don’t want to say but certainly more volatility then we had been seeing so last week as expected I do expect the volatility to persist again until next week if we’re going to talk about that this weekend as well remember we’ve got Thanksgiving coming up and back we have three Saturday reviews in a row tomorrow in the following two weeks and then next week no because of the holiday weekend Thanksgiving weekend so there’s going to be a downturn that tends to happen with some guys we head into the bullish seasonality of Thanksgiving any holiday weekend that tends to happen not at the last minute but with some time so the market can settle into what it’s going to be settled into something that reflects that pull back having been or that drawdown haven’t been a pullback temporary pull back something that settles into that being reversal lot of stuff to look at in making that decision will go over that tomorrow as for today for last night really nothing you can see this is the this was the cell signal that could have triggered yesterday I had earlier looking to get rid of that because it’s pretty much meaningless now but that’s just as a as an indication of how much room it wasn’t a lot but without that was even used very little upside since yesterday’s clothes greeted at the High retesting the overnight high and then a huge plunge of three and a half points not even three and a half points out of Europe’s opens that’s what covered all the way so not a lot of no different version of afternoon which recovered which had been recovered or what was a recovery I should say of the mornings collapse the mornings collapse having been a repeat actually totally separate but down to thewhich had already 637516375 generally that would mean that’s irrelevant level that support that’s tested that’s held that is recovered in tirely generally that would mean that the market is tried and failed to reverse down we’ll go over some of the recent some of the recent okay some of the recent looks at that setup testing support testing and over a couple of times and windows failing over a couple times and windows and wrapping up the next day generally that’s what that mean so not the problem though with this setup at this time is the end of the recoveries have not yet recovered an interim high and interim High being maybe the overnight hi well the other night I the interim overnight High yesterday’s was recovered but very late so not so late that it’s invalidates that sponsorship as being weak handed but certainly is suspicious or that the recovery just yesterday afternoon forget the overnight forget the interim High between the other night and morning plunges but the recovery stop short of Wednesday afternoon little of Wednesday’s new tower highs so little suspicious optimism that the other another version of different or no different really it’s the same thing just a different way this is optimism for the late timing of this is optimism overnight for it’s shallow hovering at the highest optimism ahead of an event like employment situation report can be so just keep that in mind really nothing to do here because we don’t just to point out that if the report comes in and reaction is favorable than the expectation is that we get back to two Wednesday’s highs which by the way there’s resistance at 8150 just get out of a d150 and we’ll look for 10:50 that’s what’s in play next 6375 already let alone alternatively 375 375 375 375 probably and we’re probably going to open it’s probably because it’s being broken and just two totally different set-up the way to break 6375 in this setup happens to be the gap down under it so it’s going to be difficult to express any pessimism here without it resulting in a gap down under yesterday’s low that’s not necessary it’s not necessarily the only pessimism that can be expressed if there’s any pessimism that’s expressed Post open then it had better be recovered absorb to something on the order of yesterday’s collapse pretty quickly because almost any time spent in negative territory and not 2571 just kind of a big pretty quickly projected reversed in the positive territory or it starts getting very heavy very quickly 45 minuteslittle bit bigger correction there but it’s irrelevant for just looking for that correction and at some point it had tried ending gets love it too much pessimism here on Tuesday and so the gap down and Wednesday which didn’t extend was suspicious itself nothing to add been hovering under its Buy Signal not quite rejecting it but haven’t touched it yesterday having develop now under what we can see is a parallel up turning support just as a guide that’s not a trend line support that has to be at here too but just as a guide to point out time’s ticking pretty much need to see a recovery on the n-3 today’s clothes into the weekend or else there is suddenly much greater likelihood of this basically being a continuation pattern this past week to couple weeks and extending down Looney toying with this by signal that really triggering it the pound which gave up this opportunity for just a bigger corrective bounce in a big way gave it up to back down to the Lowe’s I don’t think they were going to get out of this test and it’s more thorough test now of course of 131 130 90 that was tested already ate that the problem with this was it didn’t spend enough time to keep me waiting and we are willing to give it a benefit of the doubt on this break hire that never had a second consecutive are close to confirm but a little bit more time spent down here backing and filling and we can get a bottom of the pound silver 1711 around it still overlapping never really didn’t extend any higher yesterday and now still testing 1710 but the point is that possibly but now the burden of proof in a very quick fashion gold somewhat similar lace stuck in this area and not explaining it is that a little pessimism like silver ahead of employment situation report last minute pessimism potentially we’ll see but better be exploited today and maintain that signals here 15220 twice two consecutive closes says it if there’s a negative reaction to the employment from a position of strength looking for a bottom kind of like the poundcrude oiltell you yesterday’s open that cat back up USA’s open is never tested well through testing overnight it would be more than usual to retest it Post open as well that’s the anticipation any way that this all results and extending tire 255 70 and finally Natural Gas yes at the open basically filled but his dad by we don’t leave anything I’m in the session itself opens high was retested we don’t leave anything at standing here at the logo that has to be were tested just close web 297 we can give buyers every benefit of the doubt the shallow patient approach to it is helpful but this is been extended to climb so I definitely want to see that before calling there any questions of course I’ll be back in there long before the open with the employment situation report reaction mapping that out alright review tomorrow good luck today
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