Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2583.50 | 2580.50 |
| …would target | 2588.25 | 2585.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2572.25 | 2569.25 |
| …would target | 2565.50 | 2562.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
For closing almost unchanged Thursday, the rally’s essence was thoroughly tested since Wednesday’s close. Two separate collapses from 2574.00 or higher each tested the 2563.75 or lower. And each was recovered entirely. The first collapse was overnight, and recovered to greet Thursday’s open unchanged. But it didn’t attract reinforcements, which enabled another collapse.
The latter recovery stopped short of the morning’s highs at unchanged while consolidating through the afternoon down to 2571.00. But the final hour rallied to fresh session highs at 2578.25. That’s positive territory, but still short of Wednesday afternoon’s prior highs — and late enough to be suspicious of its sponsorship being weak-handed optimists ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report.
The vulnerability to reacting down Friday is mitigated somewhat by the two failed attempts to break under a relevant low. This usually means that sellers are done. But there’s no bullish reason for another reaction down — as a collapse, or otherwise — so there’s no bullish excuse to delay rallying. Rallying would target a retest of 2585.50, if not also the rally’s 2590.50 objective, and possibly another new trend high close on a Friday. Fresh lows could extend intraday down to 2253.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednedsay’s gap down tried resuming the decline immediately after Tuesday had filled the gap back up to last Thursday’s close. That would have been credible, had the gap down extended lower intraday. But it did not, keeping alive potential for a bigger corrective bounce, which was attempted Thursday morning by probing above Tuesday’s highs. The decline is free to resume at any time.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing above Wedneday’s high to 1295.00 was still reacted back down to test 1277.50, which must be maintained as support to keep alive the potential for launching a new rally leg in to the weekend, instead of a retest of last month’s Employment Situation report lows.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s close above the 17.11 buy signal was still only overlapping it, which Thursday also did despite probing slightly higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sideways ranging overnight hovered above the 152-20 bounce limit that had been probed intraday up to 153-10. That was only improved intraday Thursday up to 153-22, filling the 2-week old gap that was created on by launching the interim downleg. Back under 152-10 would signal momentum reversing down, but Friday’s Employment Situation report is otherwise being greeted from a position of strength.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s dip back down to the 53.88 pullback limit didn’t extend lower intraday, despite having room down to 53.50 without reversing momentum while still targeting 55.70.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, but not from a position of weakness, either. Gapping up slightly firmed intraday to attack 2.97 whose recovery would signal the next rally leg is underway.
Mid-day Update… All recovered (again) and nowhere to go.
Another dip recovered, but not reversed.
Anxiousness ahead of the post-close AAPL earnings and tomorrow’s pre-open Employment Situation report may be taking hold now. Price action for the balance of the afternoon could be paralyzed by anxiousness.
That might be an overstatement. There’s plenty of room for backing-and-filling within the existing range. Or price could hover at or around the afternoon’s 2574.75 bias-up signal which was pierced momentarily but not triggered.
Inhibition ahead of the news items can otherwise inhibit trending up. Only attack relevant levels but not yet recovering them means they held. And entering the bias environment still in negative territory is difficult to rally.
Hovering at or around 2574.75 could start breaking higher when the bias environment begins lapsing. That would be credible for extending higher. But breaking higher at all isn’t required.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 3, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s econ calendar is unusually busy. The Employment Situation is often released in a vacuum with few if any other economic data. But high-profile and influential items are staggered out the open. And any noticeable reaction to payrolls is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open items.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
12:15 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET