Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2826.25 | 2831.50 |
| …would target | 2833.00 | 2838.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2817.75 | 2823.25 |
| …would target | 2812.00 | 2817.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… It’s the level.
Retest of prior high finds sellers again.
The overnight rally up to 2822.00 was recovering a corrective dip during the Market Tour recording. The recovery extended to retest yesterday’s 2825.00 pre-open high up to 2826.00. Hovering there briefly like yesterday’s test soon resolved down sharply, like yesterday’s test.
Unlike yesterday, the pre-open collapse to 2815.50 was recovered to greet the open back at or above the 2818.75 bias-up signal. Which extended back up to 2825.00, within 1 tick of this morning’s bias-up target.
Reacting back down again probed under the 2818.75 bias-up signal, in time to invoke grace period. It triggered late. This is a bias-up environment, targeting 2825.25.
Back under 2818.00 again would be likely at least to fill the gap back down to yesterday’s 2814.00 cash session close equivalent. Meanwhile, resuming the rally to test the bias-up target would be likely also to extend up to the 2831.00 area. But the upside probably depends upon rallying this morning, and not delaying a recovery much longer.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Ignoring the news.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Volatile overnight ranging had ranged up to 2825.00, potentially headed to fresh highs. We’ll never know, because China trade news triggered a collapse through the open down to 2808.50. Bouncing through the morning up to 2821.00 was retraced back down to 2811.00, with the final hour’s recovery effort peaking at 2817.00. “Unfinished business” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2806.25 bias-down target.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late recovery effort to 2817.00 had retraced to 2811.00, where another recovery would be likely if a recovery were valid at all. Trending back up began without delay, reaching 2822.00 by midnight. A 5-point dip into Europe’s opens has been recovered to probe several ticks above the earlier high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
It was Tuesday’s multiple failures to exceed the 2803.00 area that enabled the overnight dip’s recovery to trend higher Wednesday. Will Thursday’s upside inhibitions resolve similarly Friday? A pre-open rally to 2425.00 was reversed down sharply by China trade news. If that had intended to probe higher otherwise, then Friday should do so — and possibly also compensate for the delay, extending to the 2831.00 area. Otherwise, not triggering bias-up this morning could be the start of drifting lower into the weekend.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2820.75 would be likely to trigger the 2818.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2815.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2814.00 | 2818.75 |
| …would target | 2820.50 | 2825.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2805.50 | 2810.50 |
| …would target | 2797.50 | 2802.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Would Thursday have probed above 2824.00-2825.00 resistance? China trade news converted an overnight rally into an opening deficit, and the balance of the session was stuck to the new paradigm. Dips to 2808.50 and 2811.00 were recovered back into the range, but never reversed into positive territory — except once up to 2821.00, but only briefly as the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. The afternoon was spent backing and filling.
Dips all recovered into the range. Except for the last one, but it had begun too late to be predictive. Opening Friday firmly enough or already high enough — at least attacking Thursday afternoon’s 2817.00 high — would be likely to retest Wednesday’s 2826.50 high, perhaps higher above 2831.00. Any early fresh high would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply through the afternoon.
Probing lower overnight or post-open would be attracted to Thursday morning’s outstanding 2806.25 bias-down target. Its “unfinished business” requires retest. The likely attraction to “lower prior highs” at 2801.00 is not required, but likely. But its test is likely to hold. Ending the week any lower than that would be bearish, and vulnerable to extending down more sharply.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.