Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2825.25 | 2830.25 |
| …would target | 2832.25 | 2837.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2815.50 | 2820.75 |
| …would target | 2808.75 | 2814.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The overnight recovery to 2826.00 was essentially a repeat of the prior night’s recovery to 2825.00. 
Both were reversed down sharply before their opens. But Friday’s collapse held up enough to trigger bias-up, producing a very productive rally that included the likely reward for retesting the pre-open high — surging up to the 2831.00 area, and extending during the noon hour to 2836.50.
Meanwhile, Friday afternoon’s bias-up triggered, leaving outstanding its 2838.25 bias-up target. Which is not invalidated. The afternoon’s attacked 2826.00, which already raises the degree of difficulty in neutralizing the “unfinished business” above. Now add to it that the afternoon’s pessimism confirms the bearish WedEX will influence Monday morning. The question is whether the likely post-open slide is preceded by gapping up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEK’S SATURDAY REVIEW
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Hovering Thursday at 1.1290-1.1300 support broke higher Friday to retest Wednesday’s 1.1339 intraday high and 1.1345 overnight high. The sell signal is raised to 1.1300.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although not optimal, Thursday’s correction day was still required to resolve up much sooner rather than later. Gapping up Friday suggests as much, although still needing to close above Wednesday’s 1309.50-1311.50 highs to resume the rally.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already rallying overnight back above the 15.27 sell signal suggested that Thursday’s drop was an isolated correction. But a close above 15.50 is still needing to resume the rally.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s second consecutive dip spent the day testing the 145-16 sell signal but not triggering it. Its immediate rejection Friday surged to probe the 146-00 buy signal, still needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm the rally has resumed, but the session quickly settled in to fluctuate narrowly around 146-00.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The confirmed breakout above 57.00 was allowed a correction day before resuming the rally and fulfilling the minimum required third higher close. But extending higher into the weekend would still be likely to extend the rally coming out of the weekend. Friday’s opening dip to 57.75 was recovered back to Thursday’s close, still likely to extend higher.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday was greeted still fluctuating narrowly around 2.84, which wasn’t recovered int time for greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Reacting down Friday to 2.79 allows another close above 2.84 to follow-through and extend higher.
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Mid-day Update… And then some.
Probing sharply higher highs.
As announced previously, I’m using Friday afternoon’s performance as an input to the WedEX’s influence on Monday morning.
If the indicator is influential this afternoon, then its passively bearish posture would suggest gravitating or trending back down before the close.
Meanwhile, buyer have expended a lot of buying pressure. As was suspected, exceeding the morning’s 2825.25 bias-up target would next target the 2831.00 area. The surge between them was a surprise, and kept alive momentum for the noon hour to extend higher to 2836.50.
This afternoon’s 2831.50 bias-up signal has triggered, putting into play a test of the 2838.25 bias-up target. Having said that, NQ underperformed ES with a lower high, suggesting that institutional hands are shunning speculative issues. Until the pre-1:20 high is exceeded, there’s risk of a deeper dip despite being bias-up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 18, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only one econ report greets the new week. It’s not much busier Tuesday, so Wednesday’s FOMC events will almost ambush a signal-starved market.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET