Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2830.75 | 2836.25 |
| …would target | 2836.75 | 2842.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2819.75 | 2825.25 |
| …would target | 2814.25 | 2819.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bearish influence missing.
Opening surge holds up gains.
The overnight ranging narrowed a bit into the open, albeit still entirely within Friday afternoon’s range. The opening print was at the 2830.25 bias-up signal, which surged 3 points almost immediately, and then higher through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Much more so through the first half-hour to 2840.50.
None of which behaved in-line with the bearish WedEX, which would allow only the first half of the opening 15 minutes to rally. WedEX is not influential.
A 5-1/2 point pullback was recovered to fluctuate around the high. Extending above 2841.00 would signal that reinforcements had arrived, likely to trend up through the noon hour. Back under 2837.25 would start to signal a Double Top was being reversed down to 2834.00 or 2830.75.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… A slow, unsteady start.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s overnight retest of 2825.00 had collapsed like the night before, but this time recovered in time for gapping up to 2819.00. The morning was restrained by Wednesday’s 2826.50 high, while ranging exclusively in positive territory. The restraints evaporated with the bias environment lapsing, allowing a 10-point surge into the noon hour that touched 2836.50. Bias-up triggered, but its 2838.25 target was left outstanding as the late-morning surge retraced throughout the afternoon. A last-minute surge from 2823.50 to the 2828.00 cash session close left a new trend high close that requires another eventual higher close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped back down from Friday’s post-close surge, back through Friday’s 2828.00 cash session close. The low soon held 2824.00, just above Friday afternoon’s late low, and began reversing up. Recovering back into positive territory rallied into and out of Europe’s opens, attacking 2834.00. All of which has been contained within Friday afternoon’s range, and now price has reversed back down to unchanged.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s new trend high close offers context that ensures a recovery in case of reversing down Monday. And Monday is vulnerable to reversing down, which is suggested by still overlapping Wednesday’s 2826.50 prior highs 3 minutes before Friday’s close. Meanwhile, Friday afternoon’s pessimism confirms the bearish WedEX signal will influence Monday morning’s price action — regardless of whether the open gaps up or down. The entire opening 15 minutes could trend up, but not any higher, if the bearish WedEX influence remains intact.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2833.00 would be likely to trigger the 2830.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2825.25 would b unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/16/19) …Breadcrumbs.
Friday’s new trend high close requires another eventual new trend high close. Not necessarily the next session, all but ensuring an immediate reversal down will be only a temporary pullback that is recovered entirely. The bearish WedEX suggests a reversal down will begin immediately, leaving the question of how deep. Ignoring the bearish WedEX to rally immediately could be very productive before the next reversal down.
Setups and levels for each template are discussed during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BA, JD, CSCO, JPM, BAC, MSFT, AAPL, MU, C
transcript
—————– (03/16/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: -=-=-=-
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
Mark G: gm
—————– (03/16/2019 09:52) —————–
David B: until we see a change to underperfomance of the nasdaq the trend is higher?
Mark G: expecting FOMC to be very influential next week or not necessarily doing anything that may change the trend?
David B: so this past week has been stronger hands behind this move?
—————– (03/16/2019 10:00) —————–
David B: Usually stronger hands are already positioned so friday is not usually a day for them to be buyers?
—————– (03/16/2019 10:03) —————–
David B: can you have a bond market rally and a stock rally doesn’t ones position have to be wrong or can they be both right?
ljr iPhone: stocks: JD, CSCO, MSFT, AAPL
—————– (03/16/2019 10:06) —————–
ljr iPhone: MU
—————– (03/16/2019 10:09) —————–
David B: JPM,BAC
ljr iPhone: re: bitcoin futures to be cancelled on an a change
ljr iPhone: exchange
—————– (03/16/2019 10:10) —————–
ljr iPhone: CBOE cancelled.
—————– (03/16/2019 10:14) —————–
ljr iPhone: MU earnings wed
—————– (03/16/2019 10:17) —————–
ljr iPhone: no
ljr iPhone: only earnings play is MU
—————– (03/16/2019 10:25) —————–
Mark G: C
—————– (03/16/2019 10:39) —————–
Mark G: thx much
Bill G: thanks
David B: Thanks
ljr iPhone: thx
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!