Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2836.25 | 2841.75 |
| …would target | 2842.25 | 2847.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2827.50 | 2833.00 |
| …would target | 2819.75 | 2825.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s post-open probe above Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs to 2841.00 was retraced entirely back to the 2830.00 open when the bias environment had begun lapsing. Isolating a probe of relevant resistance or support to a relevant timing window suggests that its sponsorship is done.
This would have been confirmed by closing back under that window’s 2829.50 low, but it held. Confirmation could have been held open by closing back under Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs. but they were recovered. The confirmation window can be re-opened by proxy, by exiting Tuesday’s open back under Monday afternoon’s 2833.00 low. Which might even form a “session-long decline” setup.
Otherwise, the trend remains up. But there is no “unfinished business” above. Friday’s new trend high close had required at least an eventual third trend high close. Knowing this context is very helpful during a detour from the new high close. That was possible, even likely, given the bearish WedEX. The open’s surge foreclosed upon that. Two strong-handed sponsorships battled at the highs Monday, so it’s unlikely the pattern just ranges narrowly here — at least not past Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment, if at all.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The new week was greeted firmer, but still only testing last week’s highs, as the 1.1380 sell signal remains intact if triggered.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Monday within Friday’s range needed to extend higher intraday to be more than just noise, resuming the rally. But the range held, keeping alive the upside momentum.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up attacked the resistance of last Tuesday’s highs, still needing a higher close to signal the rally has resumed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still overlapping the 146-00 buy signal Friday did not change much Monday, as the session ranged around it flat-to-higher. A reaction down has room to 145-16 before signaling the bounce has ended.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s optimistically shallow, brief dip had recovered only to unchanged. Sunday night’s dip was recovered into Monday’s open and extended higher to attack 59.25. The confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for at least an eventual third higher close may be fulfilled, needing to close above 59.50 to signal the rally is extending.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s reaction down from 2.84 resistance was recovered yet again, still being the buy signal for resuming the rally, and still being likely to trigger.
Mid-day Update… Reaching critical mess.
Sloppy morning opens the door to paradigm shifting down.
The bearish WedEX wasn’t influential Monday morning. Until it was.
The first half-hour surged to fresh highs at 2840.50. 
Trending down throughout the morning had essentially required the opening 15 minutes of volatility to already be in decline. So, a 5-1/2 point dip was recovered to retest the high up to 2841.00.
Then the last half-hour of the bias environment collapsed, back down to the 2830.25 open. The bias environment made no net gain. And the exit even extended a little lower down to 2827.50. The bias environment finished lapsing at noon, back at 2830.25. So, WedEX was influential, however useless it was for having delayed its effect.
While WedEX’s relevance ends with Monday morning’s bias environment, the end of Monday morning’s bias environment is still relevant. The window isolated a failed probe of fresh highs, suggesting a near-term peak. And the reaction down’s test of relevant structural support — the 2830.25 opening print, which was also Friday’s futures close — was still being tested at noon, and not itself isolated.
Now this afternoon’s no-bias environment is testing its 2836.25 bias-up signal as resistance. It should define the window’s upper-end. This makes it a good candidate for being a corrective bounce’s peak before resolving down to fresh session lows. So, we’re monitoring for any credible reversal down that could snowball aggressively. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment in rally mode would be bullish.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 19, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open econ report is somewhat high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action. Meanwhile, anxiousness may begin paralyzing price action Tuesday afternoon ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement and Fed Chair Q&A.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET