Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Fair-weather friends.
Intraday buyers bailing again.
The open’s sell signals didn’t stick and the 2847.75 bias-up target was exceeded at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The 2853.50 renewed bias-up target was attacked to within 3 ticks neutralizing it.
The 2853.00 “new Globex trend extreme” was not actually touched. Another downdraft tried to trigger a sell signal. It was productive down to 2844.75, but still contained to within its first 3 minutes.
And then time ran out, as the bias environment came within view of lapsing in 10-15 minutes. It began lapsing at 11:30 back at the 2849.75 open, ready to face the consequences of multiple failed attempts to break lower during a relevant timing window — to reverse direction aggressively. So, the morning’s 2857.00 renewed bias-up target was being probed to within 1 tick of 2859.00 into the noon hour.
Quickly fulfilling an aggressive consequence doesn’t make that aggressive consequence’s sponsorship strong-handed. The burden of proof was once again on intraday buyers. Yesterday morning’s buyers were absorbed, and the afternoon buyers had gained no traction. Today’s intraday rally was retraced 6 points to natural support at the 2853.00 overnight high.
Just in time to be extra vulnerable to exacerbating the reaction to a China trade headline. It triggered a plunge back down to the morning’s 2841.75 bias-up signal. And now the plunge has been retraced by 61.8%, like most headline-triggered plunges and surges, to attack 2852.00. The 2851.00 bias-down signal has held to trigger late bias-down.
Now two intraday rallies seem to have been sponsored by weak hands. The distribution ahead of tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC events suggests at least a very volatile reaction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 20, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Bond market volatility within a range is greeting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events. Along with stocks at their highest recovered levels. No other influential or high-profile econ report is scheduled, so the statement and Q&A should be very opportunistic for trading opportunities.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Policy statement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Q & A
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2853.25 | 2859.00 |
| …would target | 2861.50 | 2866.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2845.25 | 2851.00 |
| …would target | 2838.75 | 2845.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The ayes have it.
Post-open weakness absorbed.
The 2849.75 open immediately bounced to within 4 ticks of the 2853.00 overnight high, and another bounce came within 3 ticks. Just coming to within 3 ticks would suffice for neutralizing the attraction to calculable and RSI objectives, and 4 ticks for retesting a new high.
The preference for a “new Globex trend extreme” is to actually touch it intraday, but that wouldn’t have prevented sellers from gaining traction. They tried. A sell signal under 2847.00 was probed, but never by at least 4 ticks. And the 2847.75 bias-up target was retested several times as support, but it held through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
So, bias-up is renewed, next targeting 2853.50 and potentially 2857.00. A break maintained back under 2847.00 could test the 2841.75 bias-up signal as support during the bias-up environment without reversing the trend down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Unbounded.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s choppy ranging was flat-to-higher, until Monday’s post-open surge probed above Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs to 2841.00. The bearish WedEX was in hibernation until the bias environment’s last half-hour retraced it all by collapsing back down to the 2830.00 open. This isolated the morning’s probe above of prior highs, which would have formed a top by closing back under the morning’s 2829.50 low. Instead, the balance of the session rallied back up to Friday’s 2834.50-2836.50 highs, and then back up to the morning’s 2841.00 high. This satisfied the eventual higher close required by Friday’s new trend high close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late surge back up to the morning’s highs didn’t pause as it extended through the Globex open to 2843.50. A pullback attacked 2839.00 before recovering to a higher high attacking 2845.00. The 2841.75 bias-up signal provided a shelf of support as price consolidated through midnight, and also through Europe’s opens. The range eventually finally broke, higher, sharply higher, now testing 2853.00. The overnight high includes complexity that qualifies it as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring eventual intraday retest, often the same day.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Two strong-handed sponsorships battled at the highs Monday, so it was unlikely Tuesday’s pattern would just range narrowly. Monday morning’s isolated probe avoided reversing momentum down, but the reversal attempt was made. Yesterday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts, but the overnight rally is going to ask intraday buyers to immediately reinforce yet higher prices. Gapping up above all prior highs will leave an anchor wanting to be retested from below, in case of an immediate post-open reversal down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2848.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2847.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2853.25 and potentially 2857.00. Exiting the open above 2846.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2841.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.