Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 1, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The econ calendar’s busy week is at its busiest on Thursday, with the most high-profile and influential reports. ADP sets the tone before the open, and gives us an advance indication of sentiment heading into Friday’s report. Two post-open manufacturing reports are staggered, including Construction, and likely to react however ADP might have done. Volatility may go into hibernation ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2579.25 | 2576.50 |
| …would target | 2584.25 | 2581.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2572.75 | 2570.00 |
| …would target | 2567.75 | 2565.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Hurried up, and waited.
Opening surge or dip prevented by post-open hovering.
Having extended the pre-open recovery up to 2573.75, almost any opening strength would have been credible for extending higher. Alternatively, Greeting the open at overnight highs allowed a quick dip to stretch the rubber band and snap back into recovery mode.
But the open did neither, instead impersonating Wile E. Coyote skidding off of a cliff. Dipping to 2571.50 held there for several minutes instead of snapping back up. Inertia was not helpful at this stage of the recovery attempt, and as with Wile E. Coyote, gravity eventually took over. Fresh lows dipped deeper back into yesterday afternoon’s range, no longer in character with a temporary rubber band stretch.
Touching 2569.00 did trigger a reaction up to 2571.75. Its recovery through 10:30 would have been the final — albeit least reliable — opportunity for signaling that sellers were done. Any higher any later could still extend, but its likelier that the balance of the morning range sideways, if not also retest 2569.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Firming up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s second consecutive close above 2563.75 confirms the next higher objective at 2590.50 is in-play. This is despite the session having developed exclusively in negative territory. Its gap down to 2571.75 open had recovered to almost fill the gap back to Friday’s 2578.50 close, before collapsing to 2565.50. The afternoon firmed back up to 2571.75. No “unfinished business below” was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late test of its afternoon 2571.75 resistance had reacted down to the range’s 2567.00 lower-end. Globex hovered there initially and then firmed back into the afternoon’s range. Well after Europe’s opens a rally is probing above yesterday afternoon’s range up to 2573.25.
If, then…
Little if any buying pressure was expended toward Monday’s confirmation session. That limits the excuses for Tuesday to delay recovering Monday’s dip and attacking fresh highs. Recent firming suggests the bullish scenario is tracking back above 2571.00 for extending higher Tuesday. Dipping back into yesterday afternoon’s range would start to suggest the rally was isolated to the overnight. Retesting Monday’s 2565.50 low would likely break lower to test 2560.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2571.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2574.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
it’s Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market or it’s not just Tuesday it’s Halloween and you know what that meansnothing Friday The 13th meant nothing Halloween means nothing that tomorrow everybody might be a little sugar happy what if there’s correlation there anyway getting a little bit of action overnight it’s not yet developed enough to be a short or to have a greater degree of assurance of extending a fire but that is the bullish scenario the boys scenario being that we have two consecutive closes now back above 6375 last Friday at tried but despite probing higher initially reacted down to 6375 650 not quite the recovery but I’ve got two of them and so it got a benefit of the doubt Friday’s rally now extending it wasn’t confirmed immediately so there’s no requirement other than other setups requirements such as Fridays new trend I close requiring their eventual other at least one more try and High clothes and if it’s on a Friday then it all starts again but yesterday gapping down stopping pessimistically short of filling the Gap back to Friday’s close extending down again but holding a rose not quite the rejection of the dip back into the prior Tuesday’s range which brings us to the next point in one moment and that is without quite rejecting Friday’s yesterday’s dip back into the fryer Tuesday’s range closing with it was still kind of in its quicksand but we didn’t break under it so there’s attraction orbits basically back to Friday’s High any kind of strength that gets in the way this morning we would assume is headed to Friday’s but then that brings us back to having end of the day back within Tuesday’s range not quite rejecting the dip back into it overnight there’s an attempt to hear that seems to be getting underway that again is not high enough to give us a chance yet we need to get out of up 7425 which happens to be this morning doesn’t happen to me but is also this morning before Breaking Free from the orbit of yesterday’s Lowe’s getting out of last Tuesday’s range overwhelming through the open and bounce he doesn’t extend then 65 and then probably 60 before trying to buy them again I would be pretty comfortable with getting pretty much anytime otherwise I might not be available nearbyinhibiting the recoveries although we give her the benefit of the doubt for at least fill in the gaps recent gaps above if there were any further strengthen its just not a great trade for the risk-reward bases pound firming it has rooms room after 1:30 to 8:50 or so but similar to what I just described even though there’s somewhat unfinished business below kind of premature and the recovery get out of bed 13250 and I would have to give that a benefit of the doubt of extending higher there’s the Looney and it’s unfinished business below back to Friday’s Gap Town the Euro trying to balance it has room it doesn’t have to bounce back to Friday the 17th 1760 I’m going support that took forever to break and finally seemingly compensated for its delay none of which has to be tested before resuming to decline gold running into trouble again the attractions at 12:50 after 6:50 on Friday only attacked pushing back here silver not as Not Unusual left the Gap outstanding back to Friday’s open stopping short of its 1650 Target neutralizing the biggest bounce it would be acceptable 5220 which tested overnight here and it’s being responsive to it crude oil 255 70 so long as 53 November dipping back into the Lowe’s yesterday though based on Fridays pattern high degree of likelihood that it was a voided you can see their buyers didn’t get any traction that’s not bullets that suggests the down side remains intact alright any questions let me know and I will get back to them before they open I’ll see you good luck todayhappy Halloween
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Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2576.75 | 2574.25 |
| …would target | 2582.50 | 2580.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2567.50 | 2565.00 |
| …would target | 2561.50 | 2559.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.