Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
2563.75 maintained a second consecutive recovery close to confirm the next higher objective at 2590.50 is in-play. And the confirmation was done without expending buying pressure. Monday’s entire session developed in negative territory. Its post-open surge only tested the structure containing the gap back up to Friday’s 2578.50 close.
No “unfinished business below” was left outstanding. This includes oversold RSIs at the 2565.50 low, since that had developed during the noon hour when retest isn’t required. But a late opportunity to gain traction was missed by not recovering 2570.25-2571.00 before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close.
Recovering 2571.00 overnight would be credible for extending higher Tuesday, especially above 2574.25. Otherwise, exiting the open under Monday’s 2565.50 low would make 2560.50‘s test likely next.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Bouncing Sunday night from last week’s two-day ECB plunge is likely only a correction, with a more substantial consequence to last week’s break still in-play. Meanwhile, the gap back to Thursday’s 1.1685 close is an attraction, perhaps up to 1.1735.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further from Friday’s test of 1266.50 on Monday helps to confirm that the 3-week old low’s retest has held. Its 1280.50 was attacked, and closing above it would start to signal a new upleg underway.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s bounce firmed a little further Monday, testing “higher prior lows” at 16.65, and still likely to resolve down for a test of 16.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday tested one set of “higher prior lows” at 151-18 and extended higher intraday to attack the next set at 152-08. But at least one more fresh low close remains likely, so long as the bounce doesn’t recover 152-20.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing the next higher objective at 54.15 before Monday’s open, its intraday retest must hold above 53.88 through the close to maintain the upside momentum.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec from Nov] Friday’s new lows made Monday likely to probe lower at some point intraday, regardless of when or if maintained through the close. That was avoided, undermining near-term bottoming potential. A test of “higher prior lows” 3.01-3.05 before filling the gap back down to Monday’s open would also keep alive the bottoming potential.
Mid-day Update… The other shoe.
Other shoes dropping.
More news on indictment-Monday included a low-level campaign advisor’s guilty plea for lying to the FBI. He was being worked by a Russian agent, so it brushes up against the Russian collusion narrative. But it still falls short.
That hasn’t stopped the market hunkering down again, this time in reaction. Some tax reform headlines may have also contributed. Regardless, the morning’s break back under 2473.50 produced fresh session lows down to 2565.50. That’s 3 ticks under this afternoon’s bias-down signal, which didn’t trigger.
Oversold RSIs at the low don’t require being retested since they developed during the noon hour. Recovering into the afternoon bias environment has touched 2571.50. A pullback has room to test 2568.00 without yet beginning to signal fresh lows in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 31, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open PMI is released several minutes earlier to its institutional subscribers, and the reaction tends to be repeated when released publicly. Any noticeable reaction to the three earlier reports is likely to be duplicated by PMI, or by Consumer Confidence.
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2577.00 | 2574.25 |
| …would target | 2584.00 | 2581.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2568.75 | 2566.25 |
| …would target | 2564.00 | 2561.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.